Oscars 2015 Predictions, Best Foreign Film: 'Ida' is the Front-Runner, But 'Wild Tales', 'Leviathan' Could Surprise

By Francisco Salazar Feb 12 2015, 00:00 AM EST

The Best Foreign Film category at the Academy Awards is always one of the most exciting categories because it is always unpredictable and sometimes the front-runners never win.

This year's nominees include three European countries, one African nation and one South American country. It also includes two first time nominees, two winning countries and one previously nominated country.

The winner of the category will join previous winners Italy ("The Great Beauty," 2013), Austria ("Amour," 2012), Iran ("A Separation," 2011"), Denmark ("In A Better World," 2010), and Argentina ("The Secret in Their Eyes," 2009).

"Ida"-Poland received its tenth nomination at the Academy Awards. The country was previously nominated in 2011 for "In Darkness, in 2007 for Katyn and in 1981 for "Man of Iron." This year the country's selection is very strong as it did well with critics' circles and also won the BAFTA award. It is also the only foreign film to have been nominated in another category which could signify the Academy's favorable response to the movie. It also helps that the film was a box office success in the U.S. and that critics admired it. It also won the European Film Awards beating out fellow nominee "Leviathan." However, it has a couple of factors against it. The film lost the Critics' Choice award, as well as the Golden Globe. It also caused a number of controversies in its native Poland. Additionally, a nomination in another category does not mean the Oscar. In 2009, "The White Ribbon" had won most of the precursor awards and was even nominated in more than one category. However, it ended up losing to Argentina's "The Secret in their Eyes." "Ida" is definitely the front-runner but it can easily lose in such an unpredictable year.

"Leviathan"-Russia's selection was a huge surprise and it scored the country its sixth nomination. Russia had previously won in 1994 for "Burnt by the Sun" and was also nominated in 2007 for "12." "Leviathan" has remained strong throughout the year after its premiere at Cannes, where it won the Best Screenplay award and was a huge contender for the Palme D'Or. It was later nominated for a number of precursors and won the Golden Globe. Reviews were also ecstatic and it has done well at the box office. It also does not hurt that Sony Pictures Classics is distributing the film and the company won four of the last five Best Foreign Film awards. While it is definitely a viable candidate, it has to overcome the fact that it was extremely controversial in Russia due to its political messages. If the Academy feel like surprising, "Leviathan" will definitely be their choice.

"Tangerines"-Estonia received its first nomination at the Academy Awards. "Tangerines" had been out of contention for a while until it surprised at the Golden Globes and was nominated. The movie has the distinction of being the only film in the category to not premiere at either the Cannes Film Festival or the Toronto Film Festival. It is also the only foreign film nominee not to have U.S. distribution. While the movie premiered at Palm Springs and the Jerusalem Film Festival, the past five winners have either been at the Toronto, Berlin or Cannes Film Festivals. With no U.S. distribution or buzz, it is highly unlikely the film will win this award.

"Timbuktu"- After a huge festival run, Mauritania scored its first Oscar nomination. The feature premiered at the Cannes Film Festival where it won the Ecumenical Jury Prize and later went to the New York Film Festival. The movie scored distribution at Cannes and later opened in the U.S. in January to rave reviews. While it is a strong contender, the film was absent from most precursors as it failed to received nominations from the BAFTAs, the Critics' Choice, and the Golden Globe. With none of these key nominees and an unspectacular box office, it will be hard for the Academy to pick the film.

"Wild Tales"-Argentina's comedic selection scored the country's seventh nomination. Argentina previously won at the Oscars for "The Secret in their Eyes" in 2009 and "The Official Story" in 1985. "Wild Tales" is a strong selection because it was a huge player in the festival circuit and even won the National Board of Review. It was also nominated for the Critics' Choice and at the Goya awards. Sony Pictures Classics is releasing the film on Oscar weekend trying to engage audiences and win over voters. "Wild Tales" could surprise especially since it is the only comedy and the Academy feels like being unpredictable like in 2009.