Messi vs. Ronaldo 2015: Will Neymar Ever Reach Their Heights? Yes, And Why He Might Surpass Them
Cristiano Ronaldo and Lionel Messi are anomalies in the history of any sport.
Certainly few can think of an era in which arguably two of the finest exponents in a sport faced off for almost a century. And yet the world is bearing witness to this very phenomenon with Ronaldo and Messi continually breaking records.
But they won't go on doing it forever as the inevitability of age takes over. At some point (and maybe that point has arrived for Ronaldo) a decline will be in order and two of the greatest superstars ever will be nothing more than memories.
But the torch is always passed on to someone else, regardless of whether that next star lives up to those heights or not. But who could it be?
Many point to Neymar and in a recent interview, legendary manager Sir Alex Ferguson continued this narrative.
"The boy Neymar gets a lot of publicity about the potential he's got, but I think that's still to be seen, still to be fulfilled," Ferguson said according to ESPN. "Certainly, most people I speak to speak highly of the boy.
"When I had Anderson at United, he spoke volumes about the boy's ability. So hopefully he'll be the next one who'll produce the type of talent we see in Messi and Ronaldo."
Is it feasible?
Neymar is only 23 years old, which means that he is still a few years away from hitting his peak. And yet he is having a tremendous year for Barcelona. He has put up 26 goals across 30 games for the team while providing four assists. That is a marked improvement from last season when the youngster managed 13 goals across the Spanish League and Champions League; he did have 11 assists to go along with the goals but his role has changed significantly in 2014-15.
Whereas last year he was more of a provider, he has turned into a fully fledged attacker with his dribbles per game increasing and his shots per game also taking an increase.
But Neymar has a steep hill to climb before he can be in the same conversation as Ronaldo and Messi -- at least in the history books. Messi was 23 in 2010-11 when he scored a whopping 53 goals and 24 assists across 55 matches. Ronaldo, meanwhile, was 23 in 2007-08 when as a member of Manchester United he put up a whopping 42 goals in 49 games for the club.
Moreover, in 2010-11 Messi was better than Neymar in every statistical category and Neymar's current stats have never been anywhere near to the quality of Messi's.
But, of course, Messi is a unique player and maybe comparing Neymar to his Barcelona teammate or Ronaldo is unfair to the Brazilian.
After all, unlike Messi or Ronaldo, Neymar is not the focal point of his club team's attack and would never get the chances to score that the other two do.
But Neymar has proven himself superior to Messi and Ronaldo in one respect.
Neymar is poised to potentially be Brazil's greatest scorer. And if he manages to win a World Cup within the next eight years when he will still be in or near his prime, he could be considered Brazil's greatest player of all-time. That might be a stretch of course, especially with Pele's name looming large, but a look at Neymar's stats for the national side tells a compelling story.
On the list of Brazil's top scorers (an illustrious one that includes Pele, Ronaldo, Romario, Rivaldo, Ronaldinho and Bebeto), Neymar currently sits fifth all-time with 43 goals in 62 matches. That is an average of 0.71 goals per game, good for fourth on that list. Pele currently sits on the throne with 77 goals in just 92 caps, good for an astonishing 0.84 goals per game. Neymar is currently 30 caps back of Pele, and if he scores at his current rate throughout those caps, he will have another 20 goals to his name, bringing his total to 63 in 92 matches. That would leave him 14 short of Pele.
But the plot thickens, because over the last four years since becoming a full-timer with the national side, Neymar has averaged 14 matches per year with the national team. It would take him under three years to complete that 30 games, and it is possible that his scoring rate improves. He had 10 goals in 19 matches back in 2013 before erupting for 15 goals in just 14 appearances in 2014. And he is not in his prime yet.
At age 23 (health permitting of course), Neymar has at least a good 10 years left to play for his national side. That time period would span two World Cups and three Copa Americas. That would also include qualifications for the World Cups, adding to the notion that Neymar is going to get a plethora of chances to boost his goal totals in meaningful matches for his country.
If he plays an average of 10 games per year for the next 10 years and scores at a rate of 0.5 goals per game (which is very low compared to his current stats), he would scored another 50 goals, smashing Pele's record.
Obviously goals are not everything, but they are certainly one of the best quantifiers of talent, especially in soccer.
Meanwhile, Messi and Ronaldo have rather pedestrian stats for their national side. Messi has a 0.46 goals per game average (45 strikes in 97 games) while Ronaldo has 52 goals in 119 matches for Portugal (0.44 goals per game). Ronaldo is Portugal's top scorer while Messi sits 11 goals behind Gabriel Batistuta. Both have been victims of circumstance (Messi gets played out of position with Argentina, while Ronaldo plays with a poor team), but Neymar was lifting a poor Brazilian side through last year's World Cup until he was forced out of the tournament via injury.
Moreover, Neymar has a Confederations Cup to his name. Messi and Ronaldo cannot make any claims to having any trophy with their international sides.
Neymar may never put up the level of play for his club as Messi and Ronaldo have in their storied careers (or he might), but he might surpass them on the international stage in a number of ways.
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