Oscars 2016 Predictions: Is 'Spotlight' Really a Front-runner after Winning Most Film Critics' Prizes?
With the National Society of Film Critics already having handed out their annual awards, all eyes now turn to the Golden Globes. The race continues to be a mystery with no clear front-runner in four of the five major categories.
Best Picture
"Spotlight" benefited most from the film critic societies as it won the most awards including the LA, Boston and National Film Critics. The film also won the Gotham awards and was the only major Oscar contender to land a SAG ensemble nomination. However, it seems the film does not have all the love as the ACE awards did not nominate it for Best Editing. This a crucial loss especially every single film to win the Oscar for Best Picture has been nominated for the ACE awards. Even "Birdman," which did not get an Editing Oscar nomination was nominated by this organization.
"Spotlight" has also failed to get nominations for its lead actors, something that has shocked most pundits. The film's front-runner status could easily deflate if it is to lose the Golden Globe and BAFTA awards.
Other films that "Spotlight" should watch out for are "The Big Short," which has jumped forward in the race as well as "Mad Max: Fury Road." There is also "Carol," which won the New York Film Critics and 'The Revenant," which has made a huge splash at the box office.
Best Director
This year looks like there will be another director/picture split. That is because George Miller has virtually won all the Best Director awards for "Mad Max: Fury Road." The film was highly praised for its visuals and story in the summer but it has unexpectedly crawled into the awards race, making Miller a safe bet to win this.
Tom McCarthy is likely to be nominated but the Academy is always looking for flashy direction and that was proven by the past winners which include Alfonso Cuaron for "Gravity," Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu for "Birdman" and Ang Lee for "Life of Pi." McCarthy's direction lacks the flashy aspects any of these films have. This is where Todd Haynes, Inarritu and even Ridley Scott have an advantage over McCarthy.
Best Actor
Three actors are sure nominees and those are Eddie Redmayne for "The Danish Girl," Michael Fassbender for "Steve Jobs" and Leonardo DiCaprio for "The Revenant." DiCaprio is the presumed front-runner as he has won the majority of the awards and has amassed nominations at the Golden Globes, Critics Choice and SAG awards. Since his performance is so transformative and has been admired throughout the year, expect the actor to win the award.
The other two will likely be nominated. Bryan Cranston is also likely to be nominated after SAG, Critics Choice and Golden Globe nominations. The fifth slot will likely to be disputed by Johnny Depp, Will Smith, Matt Damon and Michael Caine.
Best Actress
One of the most interesting races this year has to be the Best Actress race. That is because Alicia Vikander and Rooney Mara are campaigning in the supporting races. These two performances are technically leads and the Golden Globes took note of that by nominating them in the correct categories. This has made the race increasingly difficult to predict.
Three actresses are presumed locks and those are Brie Larson for "Room," Saoirse Ronan for "Brooklyn" and Cate Blanchett for "Carol." The other two spots will depend on how the Academy perceive Vikander and Mara's performances. Pundits must look at 2008 as a footnote when Kate Winslet's "The Reader" turn was brought into the lead race after the Weinstein Company opted for a Supporting Actress campaign to allow space for Winslet's Lead bid for "Revolutionary Road."
If the Academy opts for the lead this will likely throw Charlotte Rampling's bid for Best actress for her work on "45 Years" out the window. This would of course make the race even trickier given that Rampling has won most of the critics' awards alongside Ronan and Larson.
Best Supporting Actor
Yet another tricky race as there are too many contenders this year. Throughout the past weeks Mark Rylance has amassed the most wins in the category for "Bridge of Spies" but the film is not getting the same love or respect.
Another contender is Michael Shannon, who has also won numerous accolades for his work on "99 Homes" as well as Paul Dano who scored Golden Globe and Critics Choice nominations for "Love & Mercy" but no SAG nomination.
Then there is also Sylvester Stallone, who was declared a front-runner once "Creed" was released and received Golden Globe and Critics Choice nominations. Idris Elba is another question mark, as he has been nominated for the SAG and Globes but not the Critics' Choice.
Jacob Tremblay is a question mark as well, especially after the SAG nomination but voters may perceive him as too young. Finally there is also Mark Ruffalo and Michael Keaton for "Spotlight" and Tom Hardy for "The Revenant."
There is no front-runner and even if the Globes, SAGs, and Critics' Choice agree, the Academy could head in a different direction. It is crucial not to forget 2006 when Tilda Swinton won the Oscar after Amy Ryan had won virtually every award, save for the Globe and SAG awards for her turn in "Gone Baby Gone."
Best Supporting Actress
Like the Best Actress race, this race is far from over and it will all depend on Vikander and Mara.
Vikander has been a favorite through critic's prizes as she has won for "Ex Machina" and even scored a nomination at the Globes. However, SAG and the Critics' Choice had to abide by the campaigns that the studios applied for.
The only real lock in this category is Kate Winslet for her work on "Steve Jobs." However, that has led to zero wins throughout the past month.
Helen Mirren also seems to be sitting safely for "Trumbo" but like Winslet has not been a favorite.
Then there is Rachel McAdams, who got nominated for the SAG and Critics' Choice awards but did not make the shortlist at the Globes for "Spotlight."
Jennifer Jason Leigh is also a big contender for "The Hateful Eight" and has won multiple awards; she has also earned Globe and Critics' Choice nomination. However, she does not have the coveted SAG nomination. Jane Fonda is also a question mark especially since she has a Globe nomination for "Youth" but no SAG and Critics' Choice nomination.
However the biggest question mark of the contenders is Kristen Stewart, who has won the National Film Critics as well as the LA Film Critics for "Clouds of Sils Maria." The actress has been a critics' favorite but no SAG, Critics Choice and Globe nominations have been given to her. The Academy could take note however, especially after the amount of buzz Stewart has obtained throughout the season. After all it is not unusual that the Academy throw a curveball.
For example Jacki Weaver was nominated for "Silver Linings Playbook" while Laura Dern was nominated for "Wild." Other surprise nominees have included Marion Cotillard for "Two Days One Night," Rooney Mara for "The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo," and Laura Linney for "Savages."