How the Producers Guild of America Nominations Will Affect Oscar Nominations
The Producers Guild of America announced its coveted nominations. The guild is an important precursor as it one of the best predictors of the Academy Awards and it is also comprised of a large number of Oscar voters.
Since 2009 the PGA has been nominating 10 films to try and match the Academy. Over the years the guild has swayed more mainstream than the Academy and has also differed on many occasions. However, a win at this guild is a step closer to the Oscar. The nominees continued to confirm the front-runner status for "Spotlight" and "Mad Max: Fury Road." It also showed "The Big Short" as a strong contender as it continues to appear at all the Guild awards.
"Bridge of Spies" finally broke through after an absence at the Golden Globes and the SAG awards. The film has been lagging at the awards but this may give the Steven Spielberg film a push for Best Picture.
"Brooklyn" was another film that has been lagging with Best Picture nominations especially after the film missed at the Golden Globes. However, Fox Searchlight's film looks like it may emerge in the best Picture competition at the Oscars.
"The Martian" and "The Revenant" continued to do well at the guilds but they seem more like films that will be in for the ride rather films that will win big.
With these films continue their solid awards runs, the PGA provided some surprises. "Sicario" at one point fell like a no-show in awards season until the Critics' Choice nominated it for Best Picture. With this nomination, the film could still be headed towards an Oscar nomination and could likely win some technical awards.
However, the bigger surprises came from "Ex Machina" and "Straight Outta Compton." Both of these films have had mixed results during awards season. "Ex Machina" was a breakout at the box office and was a critical darling.
However, A24 was promoting "Room" as their big awards contender because "Ex Machina" seemed too genre-specific for the Academy. However, the film won the British Independent Film Awards and went on to score Alicia Vikander a Golden Globe. This nomination could bring the film back into the competition and possibly score points for Vikander's nomination.
"Straight Outta Compton" is also a film that has been scoring mixed results. However, back in December when the film scored a SAG Ensemble nomination, there was a sign that film was beloved by the Guilds.
The insertion of these fringe contenders left out some of the most beloved and presumed frontrunners. "Carol" was inexplicably left out especially after winning numerous critics prizes and being one of the most critically acclaimed films of the year. The lack of an Ensemble nomination at the SAG awards, no art director's guild nomination and now no PGA nomination is a bad sign for "Carol" and it will likely not have a chance at the Oscar for Best Picture anymore.
"Room" continued to lose ground as well as the film was left off. After winning virtually all the major fall festivals, the movie seemed like a front-runner. However, the lackluster box office and the fact that movie did not win as many critics' prizes may be hurting the film's exposure.
Other films that were left off included "Steve Jobs," "Star Wars: The Force Awakens" and "Inside Out."
While these films were snubbed they still have a chance at a Best Picture nomination. However, those films should not expect to win at the Oscars. That is because for the past 15 years every single Best Picture winner has been nominated for the PGA.
Since its inception, the PGA has been a deciding factor in the race for Best Picture. For example last year "Birdman" won the PGA before walking home with the SAG, DGA and eventually the Oscar. In 2013 "12 Years a Slave" won the PGA alongside "Gravity" and still went home with the Oscar. Steve McQueen's film had not won any Guild awards prior to its win at the PGA.
With this crowded and erratic season anything is possible especially when so many awards organizations are diverging in many categories.
It will be interesting to see how many of the ten films nominated end up nominated at the Oscars.