Oscars 2016 Predictions: How the BAFTA Nominations will affect the Oscars
The BAFTA nominations have been announced with "Carol" and "Bridge of Spies" leading the nominees. Each film landed nine nominations and showed strength within the organization, pumping up its chances of landing major Oscar nominations.
The BAFTA's are important as many of the voters in the organization are also Academy voters and particularly in the acting awards, the BAFTAs have strong track record in how the Academy will ultimately go. However, it is important to note that the BAFTA, a British organization, likes to favor British films and actors. This year was a bit different as none of the five Best Films were British. So what did the BAFTA say about the race? The following is a look at the top six categories.
Best Film
BAFTA still maintains five nominees and the five nominees are definitely strong Oscar contenders. "The Big Short" landed five nominations including a surprise Best Director and showed once again that this could be a serious contender come Oscar nominations and guild awards. This is the only film thus far that has landed nominations at the SAG, Golden Globes, Producers Guild and even the Eddie awards. That is important because the film clearly has a lot of support and could ultimately win the award,
"Bridge of Spies" had a rocky beginning in awards season as critics did not embrace it. However, it seems the film had a major turn around with the PGA nomination and leading the nominations at the BAFTA. However, it is unlikely the Steven Spielberg film will have a major shot at the big award.
"Carol" had a weird week missing out on the PGA and also missing on the Art Directors Guild. However, throughout awards season it has led many awards including the Golden Globe nominations and even won the New York Film Critics. Its nine BAFTA nominations helped it jump back into the race and it could be the ultimate winner at the BAFTA. However, it is unlikely to win the Oscar.
"The Revenant" received eight nominations and cemented its place in the Best Picture films. The film has been riding the awards circuit but is ultimately in the race to win the Best Actor category.
The question mark definitely came from "Spotlight." The film is considered the big front-runner to win the Oscar and has won virtually all the critics. However, the film only received three nominations and it failed to receive a Best Director or a Best Editing nomination. It is important to note that in the past 15 years every BAFTA Best Film winner has been nominated for Best Director. A lack of a Best Director for "Spotlight" is not a good sign. But even if "Spotlight" does not win at the BAFTA it could still win the Oscar.
The BAFTA has diverged on many occasions with the Academy. Last year the BAFTA picked "Boyhood" over "Birdman," in 2007 "Atonement" beat "No Country For Old Men" and in 2006 "The Queen" beat "The Departed." Then there was 2005 when "Brokeback Mountain" beat "Crash" and 2004 when "The Aviator" won because "Million Dollar Baby" was not eligible due to late release. However, from 2008 to 2013 the BAFTA chose the eventual Best Picture winner. With this lackluster support for "Spotlight," the film could be in trouble and this could end up being a turning point in the race.
As for the snubs in this category "Brooklyn," "The Martian," "Mad Max: Fury Road" and "Room" should not worry as the Oscars have 5 to ten spots as opposed to the five at the BAFTA.
Best Actor
The BAFTA confirmed that four of the five contenders are safe bets for the Oscars. Leonardo DiCaprio ("The Revenant"), Michael Fassbender ("Steve Jobs"). Eddie Redmayne ("The Danish Girl") and Bryan Cranston ("Trumbo") are locks for the Oscars. However, that fifth spot will go down to the wire. Matt Damon was nominated at the BAFTA for "The Martian" but Johnny Depp could still be a major player and if the Academy is feeling Indie, Michael Caine could also be a player in the race.
Best Actress
Cate Blanchett ("Carol"), Saoirse Ronan ("Brooklyn") and Brie Larson ("Room") are more than locks for this category and one of the three are likely to win. Where the BAFTA gave a better picture was the positioning of Alicia Vikander as she was nominated for Best Actress for "The Danish Girl" giving her the possibility of a second nomination in Best Supporting Actress. However, what this really did was show where the Oscars will ultimately place her for "The Danish Girl."
The BAFTA and Academy are not forced to abide by the campaigns that distributors decide. This was most recently seen in 2008 when Kate Winslet landed Best Actress nominations at the BAFTA and Oscars for "The Reader." The Weinstein Company opted for a Best Supporting Actress bid so Winslet could still have a chance for "Revolutionary Road."
While four slots are now more than filled in, the fifth slot is still a question mark. Maggie Smith was nominated for "The Lady in the Van" at the BAFTA. This was definitely an out-of-left-field nomination for a film that was not seen by many and pundits believed the organization would favor other candidates. While Smith is also nominated for the Golden Globe, most believe it will not be repeated. Moreover, this could end up going to Charlotte Rampling for "45 years" or Rooney Mara depending on if the Academy thinks her performance in "Carol" is supporting or Lead.
Best Supporting Actor
This category continues to be a question mark but it is becoming increasingly clear. Christian Bale ("The Big Short), Mark Rylance ("Bridge of Spies") and Idris Elba ("Beasts of No Nation") should sit steady as they are likely to be nominated. However, the last two spots are still question marks. At the BAFTA Benicio del Toro received an unexpected nomination for "Sicario" while Mark Ruffalo appeared for "Spotlight." However, will the Academy go for these performances? The answer is tricky as Michael Shannon did not qualify for "99 Homes" and Sylvester Stallone is still a huge contender for "Creed." Then there is Tom Hardy for "The Revenant," who can still surprise. Finally, Jacob Tremblay has a SAG nomination and that could weigh in when the Oscars are announced. Demian Bichir received a nomination in 2011 despite being completely ignored by most but not the SAGs. That is why Tremblay should be watched closely. Finally Mark Ruffalo's nomination will depend on how much love "Spotlight" gets from the Academy. If the SAG and Golden Globes have any say, it could be minimal.
Best Supporting Actress
Kate Winslet should be comfortable with the idea of a nomination for "Steve Jobs" as she is the only actress who has appeared consistently during awards season. However, don't expect her to win. Then there is Rooney Mara. Her nomination will depend on where she is placed. Will she be a lead like at the Golden Globes or supporting like at the BAFTA and SAG? BAFTA's nomination seems to indicate that she will probably be a supporting actress contender at the Academy Awards.
Then there is Alicia Vikander for "Ex Machina." This is the second place she lands two nominations at and she has been winning a lot of awards for her turn in "Ex Machina." Her nomination at the BAFTA solidifies her status as a front-runner but is the Academy willing to give the actress two nominations in the same year? It's very rare and the last time it happened was in 2007 when Cate Blanchett landed nominations for "I'm Not There" and "Elizabeth: The Golden Age." If Vikander wins the Golden Globe for "Ex Machina" and then the SAG, expect her to obtain two nominations.
Jennifer Jason Leigh is another actress who is a question mark. She has won some awards but "The Hateful Eight" has not received the same love as Quentin Tarantino's other films. Her BAFTA nomination definitely makes up for the lack of a SAG and it also gives reassurance after her Golden Globe and Critics Choice nomination.
The final slot here was given to Julie Walters, which was a patriotic move. However, that will not happen at the Oscars. The fifth slot could go to Kristen Stewart for "Cloud of Sils Maria," Jane Fonda for "Youth" or Rachel McAdams for "Spotlight" if the Academy is loving the film. And finally Helen Mirren could show up for "Trumbo" after receiving SAG, Golden Globe, and Critics Choice nominations. Why she did not received a BAFTA nomination is inexplicable, especially since she is British and is beloved.
Best Director
The category offered up some clues as to how the DGA and Oscars will ultimately sway. However, it also left some question marks. Todd Haynes ("Carol") and Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu ("The Revenant") are strong contenders and their nominations with the BAFTA reinforced it.
Ridley Scott is definitely a contender for "The Martian" but the film's missing Best Picture nomination was a mystery. Steven Spielberg is also a good choice but unlikely to repeat with the Academy.
Adam McKay was by far the biggest surprise of the category as he took out George Miller for "Mad Max: Fury Road" and Tom McCarthy for "Spotlight." This is where "The Big Short" could be a major threat, when everything is said and done. The film has been surprising throughout awards season and it wouldn't be a surprise if McKay lands a DGA nomination. It is important to note that the film has been nominated for all the important Guilds and the Oscar race has seen surprising turnaround once the industry has a say. For example regardless of the love for "Boyhood," it was "Birdman" that ultimately got the vote from the Guilds and ultimately the Oscar. Then there was "The King's Speech," which changed the race and defeated the presumed front-runner "The Social Network."
But the race most will never forget is 2005 when "Brokeback Mountain's" loss at the SAG awards changed the course of the race and ultimately helped "Crash" walk away with Best Picture at the Oscar.
However, BAFTA does not always have a strong record with the Director nominations and it is likely the Academy will place Miller and McCarthy in this category.