2016 Election Polls: Trump Extends Lead Over Cruz in Iowa
With four days remaining until the Iowa caucuses, new polling data shows Republican front-runner Donald Trump faring strong against his second-place rival, Ted Cruz.
According to a trio of NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist polls released on Jan. 28, Trump has pulled ahead of the Texas senator by seven points in Iowa. Among likely Republican caucusgoers, 32 percent support Trump, while 25 percent support Cruz. In the same poll taken nearly three weeks ago, Cruz had led Trump 28 to 24 percent.
Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., is third place with 18 percent support, while Ben Carson has 8 percent and former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush trails with 4 percent.
Trump is also besting the competition in New Hampshire and South Carolina. January polls conducted in both states have Trump with a double-digit lead against Cruz, according to NBC News.
"Trump is positioned to run the house in these first three states. His supporters are committed and plan to turn out," said Lee Miringoff, firector of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion. "Will it happen? The answer depends on when or if anti-Trump sentiment will coalesce to interrupt his march to the nomination."
Trump also commands a lead among evangelical Christian voters in Iowa with 31 percent support, although Cruz is not far behind with 28 percent.
The businessman also has an advantage with non-college graduate voters, holding 42 percent to Cruz's 24 percent in that demographic. By contrast, Cruz bests Trump among Republican college graduates, 26 to 20 percent.
When it comes to the Democratic primary, front-runner Hillary Clinton maintains a slight lead over Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, as 48 percent of likely Democratic voters support the former New York senator and 45 percent back Sanders.
"If Clinton carries Iowa, she can absorb a defeat to Sanders who has a home field advantage in New Hampshire and then move on to South Carolina," said Miringoff. "But, if Sanders carries Iowa and then New Hampshire, this contest will, indeed, be a marathon."
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