Democrats Race for Nevada: Who Will Win the Heavily-Latino Populated State?
Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders have been running in a tight race for the Democratic nomination. During the Iowa caucus earlier this month, the 2016 hopefuls were nearly tied, with Clinton earning 49.9 percent of the vote and 23 delegates, compared Sanders who gained 49.6 percent and 21 delegates.
Clinton, the Democratic front-runner, then suffered a major blow in the New Hampshire primary, where she gained 38 percent of voter support and Sanders won with over 60 percent of support.
Next up: the Democratic contenders will face off in the Nevada caucus on Saturday, Feb. 20. Hispanic voters will likely have a strong impact in determining who will win.
The Latino Vote In Nevada
According to statistics provided to Latin Post by the Nevada State Democratic Party, the state has a diverse electorate, and roughly half of Nevada's population is non-white. 2014 census data shows a growing Latino population that currently makes up about 27.8 percent, while about 9 percent of state residents are African-American and 8.3 percent identify as Asian-American.
A breakdown of the 2008 caucus exit polls also shows that 15 percent of Latinos and 15 percent of African-Americans came out to vote. That means 30 percent of caucus voters were of color, while data shows 65 percent were white.
In an email, Roberta Lange, Nevada State Democratic Party chairwoman, told Latin Post it is "critical" for the Democratic candidates to appeal to Latino voters and push them to participate in the caucus.
"No other early state matches Nevada's demographic and cultural diversity, and the Latino community makes up more than a quarter of our state's population," Lange said. "Mobilizing Latino supporters will be absolutely critical for our Democratic presidential nominee to win in key Western battleground states like Nevada this November."
Latino Outreach
Clinton opened a campaign office in April to reach voters in the heavily Latino-populated state. She also has 7,000 volunteers in the state canvassing on her behalf, reports The New York Times. In comparison, Sanders waited until October to open an office and has only 2,000 staffers on hand.
The former secretary of state also has an advantage over the senator, since she began building a foundation in Nevada eight years ago during her first presidential run. She managed to defeat Barack Obama in the popular vote, though he earned more delegates.
Race for Nevada
Much like the Iowa caucus, voters can expect the Nevada race between Clinton and Sanders to be very close. According to the latest FiveThirtyEight weighted poll in Nevada, the candidates are running neck and neck. Both have a 50 percent shot of winning.
Meanwhile, a Washington Free Beacon/TargetPoint Consulting poll released on Friday shows support for the 2016 hopefuls is tied at 45 percent each. In previous polls, Clinton held a double-digit lead in the state.
The Turning Point
Nevada will likely be a turning point in the Democratic primary election. Clinton and Sanders were virtually tied in Iowa, before Clinton suffered an overwhelming defeat in New Hampshire. Nevada will determine if Clinton can resurge in the race or if Sanders is actually too great a force to overcome.