Donald Trump, Hillary Clinton Hold Commanding Leads in South Carolina, Polls Shows
A new Public Policy Polling survey in South Carolina shows Donald Trump maintaining a commanding lead over Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio in their ongoing battle to secure the 2016 Republican presidential nomination.
Trump leads with 35 percent of the vote to 18 percent each for Cruz and Rubio. Ohio Gov. John Kasich is the only other candidate registering in double-digits at 10 percent, followed by Jeb Bush and Ben Carson at 7 percent each, according to PPP.
Trump With Strong Support Across the Board
Trump continues to fare well among a wide sector of conservative voters, attracting 41 percent of those described as "somewhat conservative," 40 percent of younger voters and 38 percent of men. In addition, Trump collects 36 percent of the vote from self-identified Republicans, 35 percent from evangelicals, 31 percent from women and 30 percent from independents.
"Donald Trump doesn't seem to have lost any support in South Carolina following Saturday night's debate," said Dean Debnam, president of Public Policy Polling. "He has a pretty consistent across the board lead with the different segments of the Republican electorate."
Still, 29 percent of voters admited they may switch between now and the Republican primary on Feb. 20, though 77 percent of Trump's supporters said they are firmly in his corner and will "definitely" cast their ballots for him.
Several indicators also suggest Rubio could have a strong showing. The poll found, if voters have to choose among just the top three candidates, Rubio inches much closer to Trump, at 40 to 28 percent. In that scenario, Cruz ends up with 22 percent. In addition, among voters who remain undecided or presently support Kasich, Bush or Carson, 37 percent said they could move in Rubio's direction, compared to 19 percent for Trump and 13 percent for Cruz.
"Marco Rubio could be the surprise candidate on Saturday night," said Debnam. "There's a pretty clear top 3 and bottom 3 in South Carolina and if supporters of bottom 3 candidates decide to vote for someone who has a better chance Rubio is going to be the beneficiary."
Somewhat surprisingly, Cruz's net favorability is the worst among GOP candidates, with 42 percent of voters saying they see him positively, compared to 48 percent who have a negative view of the candidate. By contrast, Rubio has a 58 positive to 32 negative favorability rating, while Trump is at 50 percent positive to 43 percent negative.
Researchers also found much of Trump's support comes from controversial groups. Seven in 10 of his supporters think the Confederate flag should still fly over the state Capital and 62 percent of them are in favor of creating a national database of Muslims. Forty percent of Trump supporters agree that all mosques in the United States should be shut down.
Clinton up More Than 2-1 Among Black Voters
On the Democratic side, the poll found Hillary Clinton leads Bernie Sanders 55 to 34 percent, largely on the strength of a 63 to 23 advantage among African-American voters.
"South Carolina continues the trend of Bernie Sanders running pretty well against Hillary Clinton with white voters," added Debnam. "But a majority of the Democratic electorate there is likely to be African American, and Clinton still has a substantial advantage with them."
South Carolina's open primary seems to benefit Sanders, giving him a 55-27 lead among Independents planning to take advantage of a rule allowing them to vote in the Feb. 27 primary. Clinton is up 31 points with registered Democrats, 60-29.
Latino Voters in South Carolina
As Latin Post reported, tough stances on immigration make it highly improbable either Cruz or Rubio will score well with Latino voters in South Carolina, despite their Cuban-American heritages. They are also unlikely to benefit from the traditionally conservative views of the region's fast growing Latino population.
A Gallup poll recently found Rubio had a net rating of only +5 among Hispanics, while Cruz was tied for next to last out of 10 GOP candidates with a net rating of -7. Donald Trump lagged the field at -51 and Bush was the only GOP candidate with a double-digit positive rating at +22.