Why the Nevada Caucus Is Important for Latino Voters
In 2004, current Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nevada, lobbied for a Democratic presidential caucus out west, where the amalgam of Latino, African-American and Asian-American voters could join the early-voting process.
Democrat lawmakers successfully made Nevada one of four country-wide testing grounds ahead of the 2008 "Super Tuesday" primaries, indelibly streamlining the role minorities play in the general election.
According to U.S. census data, 15 percent of the state's Latino population caucused that year, equal to the African-American turnout. In 2012, Latinos made up 19 percent of the electorate, 10 percentage points ahead of the black electorate but still well below the number of white participants.
Nearly 200,000 more Latinos live in the Silver State now than eight years ago, potentially giving registered Spanish-speaking voters a louder voice than ever. Come Feb. 20, Latinos, the country's fastest-growing demographic, will have another chance to be among the first and most ardent to select the next president, choosing first among Democratic candidates, then Republicans three days later.
"With our vibrant Latino, African American and Asian American/Pacific Islander communities and the strong presence of organized labor here, no other early state comes close to matching our demographic, regional and cultural diversity," Nevada State Democratic Party Chair Roberta Lange said in a press statement. "Nevada reflects a strong Western voice in the Democratic Party and the diverse electorate we need to mobilize to win in 2016."
The Ever-Adapting Latino Voter
Iowa caucuses began in the early 1970s as a homey, intimate way of selecting presidential candidates. Caucus-goers gather in public areas like libraries, farms and grade schools, where they either shuffle into different corners of a room if they are registered Democrats or scribble names on pieces of paper if they're Republicans.
The New Hampshire first-in-the-nation primary earned a reputation for important predictions after several successful early measurements as to how White House hopefuls would fare. Former U.S. General Dwight D. Eisenhower won 50 percent of the vote there in 1952 despite never visiting the state. Relatively unknown Georgia Gov. Jimmy Carter won in 1976. And Arkansas Gov. Bill Clinton used his second-place finish in New Hampshire to quell rumors about marital infidelities en route to winning the 1992 Democratic nomination.
New Hampshire has transformed the election process from a winner-take-all beauty contest to a stately division of delegates. Unlike Iowa, primary voters in the Granite State make a choice the old fashioned way by casting private ballots.
Nevada isn't much different from Iowa in how its caucuses work. Democrats gather in groups, weeding out those with less than 15 percent of the room until all 39 delegates are allocated. GOPers split their 30 delegates proportionally based on paper ballot results. However, Nevada is different from Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina in that the state better represents the ever-adapting American voter ethnically.
"I fought for Nevada as an early state because it reflects the diversity that makes our nation great. I look forward to the caucus on February 20th as Nevada Democrats will choose between three stellar candidates," Reid said in a statement released on Jan. 4. "Each of these candidates -- Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders and Martin O'Malley -- would do far more for this country in their first 100 days in office than any Republican would do in their entire tenure."
Of course, following the Feb. 1 Iowa caucus, O'Malley suspended his presidential campaign.
Influencing 2008 and 2012 Results
The Pew Research Center estimates about 738,000 Latinos -- nearly twice the population of Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina combined -- called Nevada home in 2011, yet only a fraction of them were eligible to caucus. The Hispanic population, now reaching 800,000 residents, makes up about 30 percent of the state's population.
Latinos overwhelmingly favored Clinton over Barack Obama by a two-to-one margin during the 2008 Nevada caucus, but switched their support once Obama won the Democratic nomination. By the time Obama ran unopposed four years later, the Hispanic share of voters in the general election nearly doubled. They made up 10 percent of the presidential electorate in 2008 and 18 percent in 2012.
The Hispanic voter doesn't have much of an influence in Midwest and East Coast events, but their fledgling influence in Nevada may make the difference of which Democratic candidate -- Clinton or Sanders -- earns the party's support.
Low Turnouts
There is no reliable polling data for any previous Nevada caucus because so few people show up.
While democratic in intent, caucuses and primaries in states with predominately white populations don't appeal to minorities. They're held in regions that either lean conservative or, in New Hampshire's case, are considered swing states.
It's not just a problem with demographics. A majority of eligible citizens don't caucus simply because they don't know what's required. Many are unaware of voter ID laws allowing one to vote without physical identification or that states offer voter IDs free of charge.
In Nevada's case, it's a mix of all of the above, though Democratic candidates aren't affected as much as their Republican counterparts. Low participation rates during the last two general elections prompted GOP lawmakers to push legislation that would convert the caucus into a primary, potentially leading to bigger turnout. But the Republican-controlled Nevada Assembly couldn't get the votes in time for this year's election. Less than 33,000 of the state's 400,000 registered GOP voters caucused in 2012.
"The Nevada Republican Party just hasn't been able to get organized enough to get everyone out to vote; and as a result, with these factions able to fill the void, a lot of those who have voted felt the will of the public has been ignored," said David McKeon, the Clark County GOP chairman, last June. "This would have provided equal opportunity for all of the candidates."
The National Association of Latino Elected Officials expects a large percentage of the 194,000 registered Latino voters to participate in caucuses over the next week. By their calculations, the Hispanic population will compose 13 percent of Nevada's electorate.
In a statement sent to Latin Post, the organization's executive director Arturo Vargas said the Latino population "will play a decisive role in electing our nation's next president," adding that engaging Latinos means more than just translating an ad into Spanish.
No other early-voting state has the potential to give Latinos the limelight. Even if Feb. 20 and Feb. 23 caucuses bring in more of the same in terms of turnout, Hispanic voters have a chance to stand out. They can draw distinctions between Sanders, Clinton and Republican candidates that have lasting consequences.