Box Office Analysis: 'The Amazing Spider-Man 2' to Dominate Box Office
"The Amazing Spider-Man 2" will swing into the top spot at the box office this weekend.
The new Sony film is slated to open with more than $100 million in its debut weekend; that would be an increase of more than $40 million from the 2012 "The Amazing Spider-Man" reboot. That film opened with $62 million and brought in $262 million by the end of its run. However the reboot ended up being the lowest grossing film in the "Spider-Man" franchise. "The Amazing Spider-Man 2" is likely to have a good opening weekend, but it may quickly lose steam as "Spider-Man 3" did in 2007. That movie broke records making $151 million in its first three days. However, the combination between an early opening and poor reviews hurt its long-term box office. "Spider-Man 3" ended up being the worst grossing film in the original trilogy, and Sony was forced to reboot the series.
"The Amazing Spider-Man 2" is garnering mixed reviews, and it currently has a 57 aggregate score on Rotten Tomatoes. Critics are complaining about the action sequences and the fact that it has three villains. All these were the same issues that "Spider-Man 3" got criticized for. "The Amazing Spider-Man 2" has rough competition in the next few weeks, so Sony will have to count on a great opening in 4,324 theaters.
Fox's "The Other Woman" will most likely have a good hold with no other female-driven films in the marketplace. The movie is expanding in 33 more theaters and has already made $31 million in its first six days. Expect a 47 percent drop and $13 million over the three-day weekend.
The faith-based film "Heaven is for Real" is likely to take the third spot and bring in approximately $9 million. The film has already exceeded expectations and made a total of $56 million. The movie is likely to surpass "Son of God" which is currently the highest grossing faith based film of the year. That movie made $59 million.
Meanwhile "Captain America: The Winter Soldier" is slated to suffer heavy declines because of "The Amazing Spider-Man 2." The movie has already made $228 million but with fan boys flocking to theaters to see "Spider-Man," "Captain America" will likely make $8 million and bring its total to $236 million.
"Rio 2" remains the only family movie in theaters and should therefore hold well. The film has already made $98 million and will definitely cross the $100 million by Friday. The film is likely to make another $7.6 million.
Paul Walker's action thriller "Brick Mansions" will continue to flop. The movie has only made $11 million in its first six days, and with poor reviews and no word of mouth, the film is likely to only bring in a total of $3.9 million this weekend.
In art house theaters there will be two major releases. Fox Searchlight will release "Belle" after a successful festival run. The movie has obtained positive reviews and currently has an 81 percent aggregate score on Rotten Tomatoes. The company is releasing the movie in four theaters and has high hopes for it.
Meanwhile Focus Features will release "Walk of Shame" starring Elizabeth Banks and James Marsden. Focus has not made an elaborate marketing campaign, and reviews have yet to be released. The fact that the film will be released in 50 theaters means the distributor has no hopes at a success platform run and the film will likely fade out quickly.
Other new releases include Music Box's "Ida," Magnolia's "The Protector 2" and Oscilloscope's critically acclaimed "Whitewash.
A number of films will also expand into more theaters. Sony Pictures Classics will expand "Only Lovers Left Alive" to another 14 theaters. The Jim Jarmusch film has enjoyed a successful run and has already made $500,000.
Meanwhile the Weinstein Company will continue to expand "The Railway Man." However unlike the past few weekends the company will only bring the movie to eight more theaters. The fact that it will not add anymore speaks to the company's caution over the film. The movie has underperformed and has only made $1 million thus far in limited release. The next weekend will be a crucial one for the film and will most likely decide whether company continues expanding it.