With Nevada Caucus Loss, Texas Becomes Most Important Win for Ted Cruz's Presidential Bid
Donald Trump won his third consecutive presidential primary, but rival Ted Cruz is banking on Super Tuesday" wins, especially in his home state of Texas.
The Delegates Situation in the Lone Star State
Based on Real Clear Politics data, Trump is comfortably winning the Republican delegate count with 81 delegates, ahead of Cruz and Rubio, each tied at 17 delegates. Thirteen states are participating in "Super Tuesday" on March 1, including Texas, which holds the most delegates that night with 155 up for grabs. Texas, however, is not a "winner take all" state, therefore Cruz, if victorious, won't leave March 1 with all 155 delegates -- unless he manages to equal or go over 50 percent of the vote.
As a proportional state, Cruz will likely share the Texas delegate count with rivals Trump and Rubio.
Polling Data: Cruz Defeats Trump, But Not By Much
Based on polling data from the University of Texas (UT) and Texas Tribune, surveying 1,200 registered voters between Feb. 12 and Feb. 19, Cruz fails to hit the 50-percent mark. Cruz manages an 8-point lead against Trump, 37 percent to 29 percent, while Rubio placed a distant third with 15 percent.
"These numbers reflect what most of us think was going on in Texas: It's decent ground for Donald Trump because he's a national candidate who's touched a nerve everywhere, but it displays a little bit of a homefield advantage for Ted Cruz," said Daron Shaw, co-director of the poll and a professor of government at UT-Austin, via the Texas Tribune.
"Ted Cruz is popular among Texas Republicans, particularly among the more intense conservatives we expect to show up on primary election day," said Jim Henson, co-director of the survey and director of the Texas Politics Project at UT-Austin. "Second, Texas is not as unlike the rest of the United States as we sometimes like to think. Donald Trump's celebrity and substantive appeal - such as it is - clearly has an audience among Texas Republicans."
Texas: 'The Most Important Night' of Cruz's Campaign
Cruz is fully aware his presidential campaign needs the Lone Star State to fully support him.
"One week from today will be the most important night of this campaign. ... One week from today, the most delegates that are awarded on a single day will be awarded, next Tuesday. The role of the first four states is to narrow the field and give Super Tuesday a clear choice, and now the voters can decide," said Cruz on Tuesday night during his Nevada caucus concession speech.
As Latin Post reported, Trump easily defeated Cruz and Rubio in the Nevada caucus on Tuesday night. With 100 percent of the precincts reporting, Trump received 34,531 votes, or 45.91 percent, while Cruz placed third with 21.38 percent, or 16,079 votes, finishing behind Rubio's 23.85 percent, or 17,940 votes.
On Wednesday morning, Cruz's Texas campaign featured the endorsement from Texas Gov. Greg Abbott. Abbott is scheduled to meet with Cruz for a Texas rally on Wednesday, but the Cruz campaign did release a video featuring the governor and his reason to endorse the conservative senator.
"It is our duty as Texas conservatives to support a leader we can trust to restore our values and move this country forward. That's why I'm supporting Ted Cruz for president," said Abbott.
Texas is home to 10.4 million Latinos, based on 2014 data. According to the National Association of Latino Elected Officials (NALEO) Education Fund, as of October 2015, nearly one of every four Texan registered voter is Latino. NALEO noted more than 3.24 million Latinos are registered voters, which represents 23 percent of the total registered voter population in the state.
__
For the latest updates, follow Latin Post's Michael Oleaga on Twitter: @EditorMikeO or contact via email: m.oleaga@latinpost.com.