'Winner Take All' GOP Primary in Florida Could Be Trouble for Rubio's Presidential Ambitions
The Republican presidential primary appears to be a three-horse race with Donald Trump, Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio, but the latter has yet to actually win a primary or caucus. For Rubio, the Florida senator may be hoping to score big
Rubio's Delegate Count
With two primaries and two caucuses completed, Trump leads the Republican delegate count with 81, while Rubio is tied at second with Cruz with 17 delegates, each. A Republican candidate must hit 1,237 delegates to secure the GOP's nomination. While Rubio could win a few delegates next Tuesday, also referred to as "Super Tuesday" as 13 states host either primaries or caucuses, the Florida senator could score 99 delegates from the Sunshine State. Florida will have its primary on March 15, and it's a "winner takes all" state, meaning Rubio's fellow Republican rivals won't share his 99 delegates but only if Rubio wins.
Polling: Trouble for Rubio
Despite being a senator from Florida, polling data has shown Rubio losing to both Trump and Cruz.
Based on surveys conducted in January, CBS News and YouGov polled 988 Republican likely voters and Rubio ranked third with 18 percent, behind Trump's 41 percent and Cruz's 22 percent. The poll was conducted when former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush was still campaigning, but he only secured 4 percent of the poll, and it's not guaranteed his supporters would flock to Rubio.
But there is hope for the Cuban American as 23 percent of respondents indicated they could change their first-choice candidate support for another GOP candidate. When asked about the next candidate they would consider voting for, Rubio received the second most support with 63 percent, losing to Cruz, as he received 65 percent.
Among the 135 Hispanics polled, Trump was still the preferred choice, receiving 47 percent. Rubio ranked second with 25 percent, defeating Cruz's 17 percent.
According to the Florida Atlantic University Business and Economics Polling Initiative (FAU BEPI) survey, conducted between Jan. 15 and Jan. 18 with 386 likely Republican voters, Trump's lead increased to 47.6 percent. The FAU BEPI poll also showed Cruz defeating his fellow Latino rival with 16.3 percent and 11.1 percent, respectively. Bush attracted 9.5 percent, but with the former governor suspending his campaign following his fourth-place finish in the South Carolina primary on Feb. 20, some of his supporters could prove beneficial for Rubio.
"At this point, Donald Trump is simply crushing the opposition in the Florida Republican primary," said Kevin Wagner, a FAU associate professor of political science and a research fellow of the Initiative. "Not only has he increased his lead, Mr. Trump's favorability ratings among Republicans are now ahead of his competitors by a substantial margin."
Since Florida is a "winner take all" state, and based on the two Florida polls, Trump would win all 99 delegates and none for Rubio.
Mass Endorsements
Following Bush's campaign suspension, Rubio won the endorsements of more than a dozen political figures. Among Rubio's latest endorsements are Cuban-American congressional lawmakers Carlos Curbelo, Ileana Ros-Lehtinen and Mario-Diaz Balart, each representing key Latino districts. While three aforementioned three House Republicans had supported Bush for the White House, they are not championing Rubio.
"From our days in the Florida legislature, I've known Marco Rubio to be a principled man committed to public service," said Diaz-Balart in a statement on Monday. "This commitment and his vision for the future of this great nation make him the strongest candidate for the Republican nomination. It's no secret that the current administration has left our country weakened and divided. We need someone who will not only win back the White House in November, but who will also put our country back on a path to prosperity. I am proud to support my friend Marco Rubio as the next president of the United States."
The Sunshine State's Latino Vote
According to the Pew Research Center, across the country, a record 27.3 million Latinos will be eligible to vote in the 2016 presidential election, and Florida is home to nearly 2.6 million eligible Latino voters. In October 2014, the Florida Department of State Division of Elections said 1.73 million Latinos were registered to vote in the state, but most are Democratic leaning. The department revealed 471,000 Latino voters were registered as Republicans, while 662,000 Latinos registered as Democrats.
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