2016 Presidential Election: The Power of the Latino Vote on Super Tuesday
One of the biggest days in the 2016 presidential election cycle has arrived: Super Tuesday. Not only will millions of Americans cast their vote in a dozen states across the country on March 1, but over a quarter of delegates are up for grabs in each party. That means that the candidates who are able to win the most support and delegates will be one step closer to winning their party's nomination and heading to the general election.
The states with caucuses and primary elections on Super Tuesday are Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Georgia, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont and Virginia. However, in addition to being a crucial day in the election season, Super Tuesday will also shed light on Latino political preferences and how the Latino voice is shaping up for the general election in November.
Latinos have proven to be an important voting bloc in the current race for the White House. Without their support, it could be near impossible for a candidate to even make it to the general election. According to NALEO Educational Fund projections, over 13 million Latino voters are expected to cast ballots in the 2016 election. That's a 17 percent jump in turnout compared to the 11.2 million Latinos who voted in the 2012 election.
Plus, there's a chance that Latino turnout could surpass Election Day expectations depending on the investment and outreach effort put forth to galvanize Latino voters.
"Early primary results have shown that the Latino vote is still very much up for grabs, even within the nation's major political parties," stated Arturo Vargas, National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials (NALEO) Educational Fund executive director, in a statement sent to Latin Post.
"With more than 13.1 million Latinos expected to head to the polls to make their voices heard, no candidate or political party can afford to take our support for granted if they want to win the race for the White House in 2016."
Texas
Texas and Colorado are two Super Tuesday states where Latino voters will likely play a critical role this election season.
Along with being the state with the most delegates for stake, Texas is the state with the largest Latino electorate. The Lone Star state also has the second largest Latino population while nearly 30 percent of the state's eligible voters are Hispanic. A 2014 study shows that the Latino population in Texas grew to more than 10.4 million, comprising 39 percent of the total population.
The Republican Latino Vote in Texas
Texas also comes second to Florida when it comes to having the most Republican or right-leaning Latinos. Ted Cruz won his senate election in 2012 with one-third of the Latino vote while GOP Gov. Greg Abbot won with 44 percent of the Latino vote in 2014.
On Super Tuesday, Donald Trump will face the largest GOP Latino electorate to date. This will prove whether or not GOP front-runner really has a strong grasp on the Latino Republican vote in spite of his anti-immigrant rhetoric.
A recent NBC News poll has Texas Sen. Cruz as the favored frontrunner. If we see Latino Republicans dump Trump in favor of Cruz or Rubio then this support will likely give them the delegate support to keep fighting on.
The Democratic Latino Vote in Texas
The stakes are also very important for the Democratic contenders. A Latino win in Texas for Hillary Clinton would help solidify her historic Hispanic support for the campaign while giving her a bigger boost over Bernie Sanders. On the other hand, a win amongs younger Latinos could give Sanders a much needed boost in his campaign.
Colorado
More than 1.1 million Latinos reside in Colorado according to 2014 stats, comprising 21 percent of the total population and about 10 percent of registered voters in the state as of December 2015.
Colorado is also an important swing state. However, if a large number of Latinos turn out for Super Tuesday, that could indicate that the Latino voter will help sway the state further to the left in November being that the Latino population has a strong Democratic preference.
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