Primary Voter Turnout Hits Record Numbers; Latinos Could Make the Difference
Republican turnout through the first 12 primaries in the 2016 race for the Oval Office is at an all time high.
According to the Pew Research Center, in the first dozen primaries of this election season 17.3 percent of eligible Republican voters have turned out at the polls, the highest rate since 1980. As part of that trend, such states as Idaho, Virginia and Missouri have seen increases of more than 200 percent compared to just four years ago.
Turnout has nearly been just as intense on the Democratic side, where 11.7 percent of eligible voters have cast their ballots, the highest percentage since 1992 other than the year Barack Obama was first elected president in 2008.
Primary Voting Typically Lags Behind General Election
Typically, primaries attract far fewer voters than general elections, such as in 2012 when 129.1 million Americans, or 53.6 percent of the estimated voting-age population, went to the polls compared to 28 million in that year's primaries.
In 2008, when Obama was first elected, 131.4 million people, or 56.9 percent of the estimated voting-age population, voted for president in the general election, more than twice the record number of primary voters that year.
Much of this year's increased interest has to do with Republican front-runner Donald Trump, who has sparked much controversy with some of his fiery rhetoric, including his vow to deport 11 million immigrants if he is elected. Trump has also vowed to erect a massive wall along the Mexican border in order to keep immigrants out of the U.S.
Several media outlets have recently reported large swaths of legal Hispanic citizens are registering to vote in swing states across the country with the express purpose of casting their ballots against the unapologetic Trump. The outspoken New York real estate magnate launched his campaign by deriding Mexican immigrants as killers and rapists.
"We've seen more people this year that want to become citizens and specifically because they want to vote against Trump," said Mi Familia Vota executive director Ben Monterroso, whose group is among those leading a nationwide effort aimed at getting more Latinos to the polls.
"People vote in an election if the election is interesting, and there are two factors that are particularly relevant in this election cycle," said Michael McDonald, an associate professor of political science at the University of Florida and director of Election Project, a website devoted to information about elections.
McDonald explained those factors include how competitive the election is and how different its participating candidates are from one another.
In a move that many Latinos have internalized as the antithesis of Trump, Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton has vowed to tackle the issue of immigration reform within her first 100 days in office if elected.
Latinos Could Make All the Difference
Pew recently reported 27.3 million Hispanics are expected to be eligible to vote in 2016, with Hispanic millennials comprising nearly half (44 percent) of all those voters.
Overall, Latinos are expected to cast roughly 10 percent of votes tabulated in November, nearly three times the 3.9 percent they represented as recently as 1992.