Hurricane Season 2016 Storm Tracker: 2016 to be Most Active Season in Years - Tropical Storms Kay, Fiona on Path to Hurricane Status?
According to recent reports from the National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and National Hurricane Center (NHC), the 2016 hurricane season is forecast to be the strongest and most active season experienced since 2012. Currently brewing in the Pacific is the 11th named storm of this year, while the Atlantic Ocean's sixth tropical storm churns over open waters.
As of the most recent public advisory from the NHC, issued at 11:00 a.m. AST., the center of Tropical Storm Fiona was located near latitude 17.8 north, longitude 43.5 west, approximately 1,295 miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands. Fiona is moving in a north-northwesterly direction at approximately 10 miles per hour and this motion is expected to continue, with increased forward speed through the next few days.
According to a Senior AccuWeather Meteorologist satellite imagery "shows steady convection" around this storm's center, suggesting that Fiona continues to maintain strength as a tropical storm, though a relatively minor one at this point.
Fiona is currently producing maximum sustained winds near 45 miles per hour, though higher gusts are being recorded. Tropical storm force winds are extending outward from the storm's center up to 45 miles, and Fiona has an estimated minimum central pressure of 1006 mb or 29.71 inches.
This tropical storm, according to various weather experts, is expected to encounter and interact with a weather system that will not be conducive to further intensification and it may be the case that Fiona gradually begins to weaken over the next several days, possibly to become a remnant low by next week.
However, elsewhere in the Atlantic there is more weather brewing, with the possibility that two more storms may form in the coming five days; traveling through the tropical Atlantic from near coastal Africa and elsewhere.
The NHC on Friday issued advisories on two tropical waves located out in the Atlantic, both of which have noted tropical cyclone formation potential as we move through the next several days.
The stronger of the two systems, a tropical wave currently located 500 miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands, is recorded as producing a (slightly) disorganized area of cloudiness and shower activity.
NHC forecasters say that environmental conditions are expected to indeed be conducive for further development and there is a good chance that a tropical depression could form by early next week, as the system moves westward through the tropical Atlantic Ocean near 15 miles per hour.
A second tropical wave is being monitored and is forecast to move off of the coast of Africa on Saturday Aug. 20. Although there is less definitive certainty with this system, it seems that environmental conditions surrounding the second wave also seem conducive for gradual development into a storm by early next week as it moves in a north-northwesterly direction through the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean.
Meanwhile, over in the Pacific Ocean, a Senior AccuWeather Meteorologist has reported that Tropical Depression 12-E strengthened early Friday morning into Tropical Storm Kay.
The 11th named cyclone of the 2016 Pacific hurricane season, Kay is currently churning through warm ocean waters in the Eastern Pacific Basin, where the weather surrounding this storm will likely produce additional strengthening as we move through the next 24-48 hours.
According to the NHC morning advisory, issued on Friday at approximately 9:00 a.m. MDT, Tropical Storm Kay is currently located near latitude 19.1 north, longitude 111.5 west, approximately 280 miles south-southwest of Southern Baja California, as it passes quite near to Socorro Island.
This storm is moving toward the northwest at approximately eight miles per hour, and forecasters expect this general motion to continue over the next 48 hours, with a slight increase in forward speed anticipated. Kay is currently producing maximum sustained winds near 40 miles per hour with higher gusts being recorded, as tropical storm force winds extend outwards up to 60 miles from the storm's center.
AccuWeather forecasters anticipate that this storm, too, will fizzle out by next week, downgrading to a tropical rainstorm. Although no significant impacts on land are expected, there is a possibility that the system could cause increased rainfall activity across the southern Baja Peninsula early next week.
Residents in this area are urged to tune in to local weather reports through the weekend, to keep an eye on the potential for extreme weather and related risks that may become possible.
While we haven't seen much activity in terms of many major storms creating heavy impacts on land bordering the Atlantic or Pacific Ocean thus far in this year's hurricane season, weather experts insist that 2016 will be one of the most active storm seasons seen in several years, particularly in the Atlantic waters.
NOAA forecasters say they expect, with at least 70 percent certainty, that we will see upwards of 17 storms by the time all is said and done (noting that during an average season, the number of named storms generally stands at 12). Of these 17 or so storms, up to eight of them may achieve hurricane status, with up to four of those storms evolving into major hurricanes.
"We've raised these [predicted] numbers [from a less active storm season outlook forecast earlier this year] because some conditions now in place are indicative of a more active hurricane season, such as El Niño ending, weaker vertical wind shear, and weaker trade winds over the central tropical Atlantic, and a stronger west African monsoon," said Gerry Bell, lead seasonal forecaster at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center.
In terms of the 2016 Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season outlook, however, NOAA forecasters indicate with 40 percent certainty that a "near-normal" hurricane season is expected. For the Eastern Pacific, a normal storm season generally produces between 13-20 named storms. Of that number, between six and 11 storms can be expected to achieve hurricane status, with between three and six of those storms developing into major hurricanes.
However...
"Hurricane disasters can occur whether the season is active or relatively quiet...it only takes one hurricane (or even a tropical storm) to cause a disaster," NOAA Climate Prediction Center Meteorologists noted. "Therefore, residents, businesses, and government agencies of coastal...regions are urged to prepare for every hurricane season regardless of this, or any other, seasonal outlook."
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