Hurricane Season 2016 Storm Tracker, Maps: Tropical Storm Gaston Likely to Become Major Atlantic Hurricane; Three Systems Expected to Strengthen to Storms in Atlantic, Pacific
Hurricane Season 2016 is picking up steam, with Tropical Storm Gaston having formed in the Atlantic on Monday. Tropical Storms Fiona and Kay still linger in the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans (respectively), while three additional weather systems out at sea are all projected to strengthen to tropical cyclone status, and at least one expected to become the eighth named tropical storm in the Atlantic later this week.
According to the most recent update from the National Hurricane Center (NHC), Tropical Storm Gaston, which formed late Monday off the coast of Africa, continues to strengthen while rapidly moving in a west-northwesterly direction.
As of 11:00 a.m. AST, Gaston was located approximately 685 miles west of the southernmost Cabo Verde Islands, near latitude 13.8 north, longitude 34.6 west. The storm is currently moving near 21 miles per hour and a gradual turn toward the northwest is expected over the next 24-48 hours, though with a decrease in forward speed anticipated.
Maximum sustained winds associated with Gaston have increased to near 65 miles per hour, with higher gusts being recorded and additional strengthening expected throughout the rest of the day on Tuesday. Tropical storm force winds are currently extending outwards up to 70 miles from the storm's center.
AccuWeather meteorologists report that conditions are favorable for rapid development of Tropical Storm Gaston as we move into the weekend.
"Gaston will become a hurricane and could become the first major hurricane of the season in the Atlantic," said AccuWeather hurricane expert Dan Kottlowski.
AccuWeather senior meteorologist Alex Sosnowski reports that indications are that Gaston will continue to travel over the central Atlantic in a path similar to Tropical Storm Fiona, posing no immediate threat to land over the coming days. Moving into next week, however, there is potential for the system to take a path bringing it close to Bermuda's shores.
"A second tropical disturbance, dubbed 99L, was located about 400 miles east of Barbados, in the Windward Islands, and could become Tropical Depression Eight this week," Kottlowski said.
AccuWeather reports that this disturbance is moving on a more westerly path than Tropical Storm Gaston, which will likely bring showers, thunderstorms, and rough seas to the Leeward Islands on Tuesday and the British and United States Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico on Wednesday.
According to the NHC, the environmental conditions related to this weather system may be conducive for further development over the next 24-48 hours as it moves toward the west-northwest at approximately 15-20 miles per hour. near the northern Leeward Islands and the Greater Antilles. The system could grow larger in scale later this week as it moves nearer to Hispaniola and then the southeastern and central Bahamas.
NHC weather experts urge interests from the islands of the northeastern Caribbean Sea to the Bahamas to continuously monitor the progress of this system, as gusty winds, heavy rains, and possible flash floods and/or mud slides could occur in those areas regardless of the extent of the system's strengthening.
If this system's path takes it too close to Hispaniola, with its mountainous terrain, it may never develop into an organized tropical storm. If, however, the system travels north of the major Caribbean Islands, then more significant and rapid development could occur as it makes its way toward the United States.
If the latter does turn out to be the case and the system eventually evolves into a tropical storm, the next name on the Atlantic tropical storm list for 2016 would baptize this system Tropical Storm Hermine.
Meanwhile, in the Pacific Ocean, two disturbances have been observed by the NHC, each with a significant chance of evolving into tropical depressions and eventual cyclones, storms, or possibly hurricanes, depending on weather and environment conditions.
"Disturbance 1," according to weather experts, is made up of a large area of disorganized cloudiness and thunderstorms located approximately 1,000 miles south-southwest of southern Baja California, and is associated with an area of low pressure. Environmental conditions are reportedly conducive for gradual development of the system and as it moves west-northwest near 15 miles per hour through this week, there is a 30 percent chance of tropical cyclone formation within 48 hours, and an 80 percent chance over the next five days.
A broad area of low pressure, dubbed by the NHC as "Disturbance 2" is currently located 400 miles south-southwest of Acapulco, Mexico and is producing disorganized rainshowers as well as thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are reportedly conducive for development of this system and there is a 50 percent chance of a tropical cyclone depression formation over the next 48 hours. As it moves westward at 10-15 miles per hour, the chance of tropical cyclone formation over the next five days increases to 80 percent.
Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Kay in the Pacific, located approximately 650 miles west of southern Baja California is expected to degenerate to a remnant low later today, and poses no threat to land. In the Atlantic, Tropical Storm Fiona, located approximately 430 miles south of Bermuda, has been downgraded to post-tropical cyclone Fiona as of Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds related to this system have decreased to approximately 30 miles per hour and the low should gradually weaken over the next couple of days.
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