Oscar 2015 Prediction: Which Early Releases Could Get Oscar Nominations
The 2014 Oscar season does not officially start until September when the Toronto and Venice Film Festivals open. However, the year has already brought a number of critically acclaimed movies and box office successes that are already being pinned as Oscar contenders.
The biggest film that pundits are already stating is an Oscar contender is Wes Anderson's "The Grand Budapest Hotel." The movie premiered at the Berlin Film Festival where it won the Silver Bear. Fox Searchlight later released the movie in March where it broke records at the box office and went on to score $53 million. The early release is never a good sign for movies because the last time a film that opened in the beginning of the year and was nominated for Best Picture was in 2000 when "Erin Brockovich" managed the feat; that film was released in March. The Academy tends to nominate films released towards end of the year and this was demonstrated last year when A24 failed to get an Oscar nomination for James Franco's performance in "Spring Breakers." Focus Features also campaigned "The Place Beyond the Pines," but that movie was completely ignored despite getting a strong critical reception. "The Grand Budapest Hotel" has an advantage over these two films because Fox Searchlight is coming off a recent Oscar win with "12 Years a Slave" and "The Grand Budapest Hotel" comes from a director who has been nominated for two screenplay Oscars and an animated film Oscar. Additionally "Budapest" was far more successful than "Spring Breakers" and "The Place Beyond the Pines."
Fox is also counting on the newly released period film "Belle." The civil rights movie about a black woman who was raised in an aristocratic family, received rave reviews and has performed well at the box office when compared to other period dramas. While these movies are never looked at as big Best Picture contenders, it is definitely a movie that the Academy will look to when it decides it's technical and craft nominations.
The one-year-old distributor A24 also had a number of critically acclaimed films in 2014 which could potentially get awards pushes. The first film in their lineup was "Enemy," which starred Jake Gyllenhaal. The movie scored rave reviews for the actor and for its direction. However, it failed to make its mark with audiences and flopped scoring only $1 million at the box office.
The distributor also released "Under the Skin" with Scarlett Johansson, and critics raved about her performance. The movie has already scored $2 million at the box office and is already considered a hit in the Indie crowd. While it was divisive at the Festivals, it scored strong reviews domestically. However, it could prove a bit too weird and off-putting for the traditional Academy.
The third release of the year for A24 was "Locke" with Tom Hardy. The movie is the latest in a line of one person films. Last year Robert Redford scored accolades for his turn in "All is Lost," while Sandra Bullock was nominated for the Oscar for her work in "Gravity." "Locke" has already landed great reviews but opened to disappointing results. However, it is important to note that sometimes box office does not always correlate to Oscars. A24 recently had an ad with a "Consider This" slogan trying to promote Hardy's performance. The company's initiatives have been to promote the actor's work which has already been nominated in the UK for a British Independent Film Award. While it may be too early for a Best Actor campaign, perhaps starting early will get Academy members to pay attention to the star's work and will force them to see it.
Like A24, Paramount has already begun campaigning for "Noah." While the movie was far from a success, the company has expectations for the Darren Aronofsky epic. During the theatrical run, the studio gave permission to Academy members to see "Noah" for free in cinemas and also handed them a sheet with all the categories the movie was eligible for. While it is highly unlikely this film will be a Best Picture contender, the film has a shot with many of the technical categories.
Another potential film that could get technical awards is "Captain America: The Winter Soldier." The movie scored impressive reviews and many critics considered it the best Marvel movie so far. However, the first "Captain America" failed to get any Oscar nominations. While it is never certain what the technical category voters will choose, "The Winter Solider" is likely to get a least one this upcoming year.
Meanwhile, the Weinstein Company has been extremely limited thus far with its release calendar. The company is best known for its Oscar campaigns and for being extremely picky with the release schedule. However, in April it released "The Railway Man." The movie stars Oscar winners Nicole Kidman and Colin Firth and has a plot that Oscar voters enjoy. However, it was met with mixed critical reception and that may have been one of the reasons behind the early release. Nevertheless, Firth scored the best reviews since his performance in "The King's Speech," and that could be a sign for Oscar glory; it could also be the category that the Weinstein Company will focus the movie's campaign on.
The Weinstein's specialty label Radius TWC has also released a number of gems. One of the best reviewed films was "Blue Ruin" and the low budget film was also a box office breakout. However, its subject matter could prove a tricky sell to the Academy. Meanwhile, Radius also released the critically acclaimed documentary "Fed Up." The movie premiered at Sundance and has since received a lot of buzz. Last year the company won the documentary Oscar with "20 Feet from Stardom" and "Fed Up" could easily be an early doc contender.
Roadside Attractions also released critics' darling "Joe." That movie also scored rave reviews and many critics stated that it was a rebirth for Nicolas Cage's career. It was also pinned as this year's "Mud," which also scored great reviews and went on to be a big box office hit. That movie also scored a number of accolades. However, "Joe" flopped and was quickly pulled from theaters. "Joe" could possibly get attention for Cage but Roadside Attractions is limited to its Oscar campaigns. Last year, Robert Redford said the company did not have enough money and barely had a campaign for his work on "All is Lost." "Joe's" Oscar hopes will all depend on what else Roadside releases this year and which films the company decides to place its attention on.
One of the films that is getting a ton of buzz is "Only Lovers Left Alive." The Sony Pictures Classics release opened at Cannes last year where it impressed audiences and critics. However, the movie faces a one big obstacle if Sony decides to campaign it. The film is a genre piece and those types of movies never tend to do well with the Academy.
Some of the smaller distributors also have a number of critical darlings. These include IFC Film's "Run and Jump," Tribeca Films' "Palo Alto," Magnolia's "Nymphomaniac" and "The Double." However, it is highly unlikely these movies will have a chance at Oscars especially because these companies do not have the budget for campaigns and mainly concentrate on one film throughout awards season.
With a number of great Indie films coming out in the next few months, it will be interesting to see if any of these early releases will still be relevant in the Oscar conversation this fall and winter.