Real Madrid vs. Atletico Madrid Champions League Final Analysis 2014: Predicting the Winner (LISTEN)
Real Madrid and Atletico Madrid will face off in the Champions League final this weekend and settle which Spanish side is the best in the world.
This match is not short on storylines and angles. Atletico Madrid enters on the heels of its most successful season in ages. While Los Colchoneros walked away with the Copa del Rey last year, winning the league title over the course of 38 tough weeks is certainly more important.
"[Athletico Madrid's] season is already a success regardless what happens on Saturday," says Fox Deportes analyst Mariano Trujillo to LatinPost.com. "No one really expected them to win La Liga title or make it this far in Champions League."
Speaking of which, that Copa del Rey final from a year ago ended a run of domination by Real Madrid over its cross-town rivals. Atletico had failed to defeat Madrid since 2000 but managed not only defeat them in the Cup final a year ago but also took them down in the first match up between the two sides this fall at the Santiago Bernabeu. The teams would meet again in the spring where Los Blancos had to pull off a huge comeback to earn a 2-2 draw against its fierce rivals.
But sandwiched in between those matches was a Copa del Rey semifinal in which Real Madrid managed a tremendous 5-0 win.
The Champions League final will be a huge factor in determining which club is in fact the topside in Spain and across the globe. Both teams have earned a trophy, and the winner would enter the summer as the holder of two.
With all those points in mind, let us explore a number of different points:
Which side has more pressure heading into the game?
Atletico's season is already seen as a massive success because of winning the Spanish League. Meanwhile for Los Blancos, this is a chance to win its first Champions League title since 2002. The team and its fan base have long thirsted for "La Decima" and anything short of a win will be a reason for uproar.
"For Real Madrid, there is more pressure to win Champions because they have invested so much money since 2002," says Trujillo. "They won Copa Del Rey but they are expected to win more."
Moreover, Cristiano Ronaldo is under huge duress. He was brought to Madrid to win this trophy and will have to do it in his country and home city of Lisbon. If there is anyone with tremendous amounts of pressure, it is Ronaldo.
Which team is the favorite?
Atletico topped Los Blancos earlier this year and shut them down in their Spanish League at home, so some would give Los Colchoneros a slight edge. Moreover the team has been a stalwart defensively with only six goals conceded in 12 games thus far. Defensively, they are the better side. They have also not lost a single game in this tournament, something that Los Blancos cannot lay claim to.
But that does not account for the fact that Real Madrid has gotten better as the tournament progressed. And that is saying quite a bit. Los Blancos steamrolled through the group stage with five wins and one draw. The team dominated three straight German sides in the knockout rounds (except for the one game in Dortmund) and shocked the world by destroying the defending champion Bayern Munich 4-0 in Germany. All the while, Cristiano Ronaldo has been a forced to be reckoned with. He has 16 goals this Champions League season, a new record (Messi held the previous record with 14). As noted earlier, Ronaldo will want to add to his legacy by picking up a win and will likely play one of the finest games of his career.
Which coach wins the tactical battle?
Neither coach has made a tactical error throughout this tournament. Diego Simeone's side played an aggressive style throughout the group stage and then adapted to a more defensive layout against Barcelona in the first leg. After getting a 1-1 draw on the road, Simeone knew that he could afford to be more aggressive to get the opening goal at home, and he did just that. Minutes into the second leg, Koke scored a goal, and the team's early lead put Barcelona into a state of confusion. As a result, Los Cules wound up making more mental mistakes and left themselves susceptible to counterattacks. Atletico did not score more goals in that game, but wound up winning it and advancing to the next round.
In the semifinal, Simeone was seemingly outcoached by Chelsea's Jose Mourinho during a dull opening leg. But despite trailing 1-0 in the second leg on the road, Simeone's team lashed out with furious abandon and completely annihilated Chelsea. Even when they managed a 1-1 draw, the team did not sit on the away goal advantage but continued to pursue attacking options and came away with a convincing 3-1 win.
Real Madrid's Carlo Ancelotti made a number of tactical errors in the Spanish League but very few in the Champions League. Iker Casillas' reinstatement as the main man in net has worked out marvelously, and his choice to place Pepe and Sergio Ramos in the center of defense were masterstrokes against Bayern Munich. The team's high pressing game against the defending champs worked wonderfully. The lone blemish in Ancelotti's UCL resume would be the passive approach the side took in Dortmund where it lost 2-0 and was lucky not to blow its 3-0 aggregate lead.
Atletico wins if...
The team plays a strong defensive side and shuts down Madrid's attacking options. Frustrating Ronaldo will be key, but the side must be wary of Gareth Bale.
"There is always an adjustment period where you get used to your new city, new team, new teammates," says Trujillo, says of Real Madrid's preseason of the former Tottenham Hotspurs winger. "But this is Real Madrid and considering the money they paid to get him, there is some pressure on him to do well on Saturday or he will be criticized."
Offensively, the team may have to figure out how to overcome the absence of Diego Costa - who will llikely not play on Saturday due to a hamstring injury.
Real Madrid wins if...
The team attacks and dominates possession. This is a side that can play quickly and creatively, but is also susceptible on the counterattack. If Los Blancos dominate possession and continually attack, they will eventually break through. Especially with the attacking talent at their disposal.
Prediction: Lisbon. Cristiano Ronaldo is playing the best soccer he has in years. A Madrid derby. Real Madrid destroyed its German curse. The stage seems set for history in the making, and it looks like Real Madrid will win the elusive "Decima." Expect a high-scoring affair ... for Los Blancos. 3-0 Real Madrid.