Malaysian Plane Most Likely Shot Down by Separatists, May Not Change Course of Conflict
The Malaysia Air airplane that was shot down over east Ukraine Thursday was determined to have been shot by a surface-to-air missle, killing all 298 people on board.
President Obama spoke about the tragedy in a press conference Friday.
"Their deaths are an outrage of unspeakable proportions," Obama said from the White House. He added that Russia refuses to de-escalate the violent conflict, and that a permanent cease-fire should be implemented.
The U.S. is putting pressure on Russia to stop supporting the pro-Russia rebels in east Ukraine. Bloomberg reported that Vitaly Churkin, Russia's ambassador to the United Nations, said Friday in New York that the U.S. is pushing Ukraine to deescalate tensions, while Russia places the blame solely on Kiev. He also asked why Ukraine allowed a civilian plane to fly over a violent conflict zone.
While Kiev has consistently blamed Russia for supporting rebels, Russia President Vladimir Putin denied such involvement and said the Ukrainian government in Kiev is responsible for the crash. He claimed that it would not have happened if separatists were not battling Ukrainian forces in the eastern provinces.
The crash occurred shortly after the U.S. and the E.U. placed stricter economic sanctions on Russia because of their recent actions in Ukraine.
However, the downing of the plane may not change the course of the conflict, according to regional security experts.
Michael Desch, an expert on international security and foreign policy at the University of Notre Dame, told the Christian Science Monitor that the conflict is unlikely to change.
"Russia's interests in keeping the pot boiling in eastern Ukraine aren't going to change because of this," Desch said. "And on our [U.S.] side, we will initially deplore this as we should, but I don't think it changes our interests or our resolve to do anything more decisive."
However, others say the plane crash could trigger a new round of sanctions.
"From the get-go, you're going to have different narratives concerning what really happened. It's going to be the 'he said, she said' scenario," Nikolas Gvosdev, a professor of national security studies at the U.S. Naval War College, told CSM. "This could be the wake-up call where everyone says, 'Whoa, this is really getting out of hand,' and decides there needs to be a renewed push to get this [conflict in Ukraine] settled."
Desch said that, while it is being determined who exactly shot down the plane, it is likely that it was a huge mistake by pro-Russia militants who thought the plane was a Ukrainian military plane.
He added that previous instances of mistakenly downing airliners -- such as when a Soviet jet shot down a South Korean Airliner in 1983 -- have had little consequences.
The Ukrainian government, who have had many military planes shot down by rebels in recent weeks, called the downing of the plane a "terrorist act."
The separatist groups were quick to dissociate themselves from the disaster, although some Twitter messages that are unconfirmed suggest that rebels who have antiaircraft systems may have shot down the Malaysian plane by accident.
The U.S. has offered help in the investigation, and the U.N. Security Council will hold a meeting Friday to discuss the crash.
A forceful response from German Chancellor Angela Merkel could prompt Germany to impose tougher sanctions on Russia, which could push Russia to finally agree to help settle the bloody conflict.
Danielle Pletka, the vice president of foreign and defense policy studies at the American Enterprise Institute, said more mistakes could occur if the fighting rages on.
"When a nation violates international norms without grave consequences, there is every likelihood of a further miscalculation," Danielle Pletka told CSM.
Pletka, who disagrees with Obama's foreign policy approach, said she believes he is partly to blame for deteriorating conditions in other countries.
"Now that we've stepped back, it shouldn't surprise us that from Ukraine to Gaza to Iraq, bad people are doing ever worse things," she said.
The geopolitical implications of Obama's foreign policy aside, the main questions being asked are why the airliner was flying over the conflict zone, and who exactly is culpable for the tragic mistake.