Champions League 2014-15 Predictions: Will Real Madrid Retain Its Title?
In 1989-90, AC Milan accomplished something that no other European team has done since -- it retained its Champions League crown for a second straight year.
Fast forward to 2014-15 and Real Madrid will be on a mission to become the first side to accomplish the feat. But as history has proven, winning the tournament two years in a row is no easy feat.
Take Bayern Munich, the team that won in 2012-13. That iteration of Munich was a dominant side that won three major tournaments that season and seemingly improved under the tutelage of new coach Pep Guardiola. The Catalonian had the German side looking like an offensive and defensive behemoth that seemed virtually unbeatable. It looked like the side, which wound up with two major trophies in 2013-14, would be able to repeat the trophy. When they faced Madrid in the semifinals, pundits were writing off the Spanish club. But a 5-0 win by Los Blancos reminded everyone how difficult it was to maintain the fitness and concentration to win the UCL.
Now, Los Blancos face that same feat. But can they pull it off?
When the team won the trophy in 2013-14, the result came about because of a highly balanced squad. Coach Carlo Ancelotti had the side alternating between an intense possession game and the best counterattacking strategy in the world. The side romped through the group stage thanks to the combined play of Cristiano Ronaldo and his record-breaking nine goals along with the handsome creativity of Angel Di Maria.
But the side really took off in the round of 16 when it drilled Schalke 04 6-1 in the opening leg of the tournament with braces from Gareth Bale, Ronaldo and Karim Benzema. A 3-0 win over Borussia Dortmund at home helped the team through to the semifinal where they annihilated Munich in a 5-0 aggregate win. While Ronaldo scored two goals, the real heroes were Pepe and Sergio Ramos who not only shut down Munich's aerial play, but in Ramos' case, also scored opportune goals. Things were not quite as rosy in the final as the side was within seconds of losing. However, an opportune header from Sergio coupled with three goals in extra time got Madrid its big trophy.
All the while, the team benefited from timely goalkeeping from Iker Casillas (except in the final when his error on the Atletico Madrid goal nearly proved fatal), terrific defending and a balanced midfield that included the trio of Angel Di Maria, Xabi Alonso and Luka Modric.
The major theme, however, was the goal scoring. Ronaldo finished the tournament with a record 17 goals while Bale had six and Benzema had five.
The offense will be just as potent this season, if not moreso with the additions of Toni Kroos and James Rodriguez. But the problem comes with the balance. Alonso is unlikely to get as much play time thanks to Kroos' arrival and his own decline. Di Maria, who was arguably the team's most consistent UCL performer, is heading for the exits in coming days or weeks.
And the overall form of the team remains a mystery.
If Rodriguez starts in the hole behind Benzema, then that would force Ancelotti to move from his successful 4-3-3 to a 4-2-3-1 without two true holding midfielders. Kroos and Modric are terrific passers, but defending is not their strong suit. The team could sit back and counter, but it would be relying tremendously on Ramos and Pepe, who can be unreliable defensively, to carry the defensive load. If the team presses up the pitch with attacking possession, then it becomes extremely susceptible on the counter. Just look at Bayern Munich, which had a true holder in Phillip Lahm and Bastian Schweinsteiger, but was still destroyed by Real Madrid's counter attack.
Goaltending should be improved with the arrival of Keylor Navas, but who knows if Casillas continues to get the call in the UCL and Copa del Rey. If he does, then will he be as good as he was last season (he had some fine moments to be sure) or will his World Cup form (which was a disaster) be the new standard?
Scheduling will certainly play an issue as well as Los Blancos will compete in the FIFA Club World Cup, the Spanish Super Copa (which they did not contest in 2013-14) and the UEFA Super Cup; this adds up to five extra games that the team did not have to worry about in its Championship season. And all three are in the first half of the year. Could fatigue catch up to Real Madrid as the campaign wears on?
But the biggest question of all is the form of Ronaldo. The superstar was the main reason for Madrid's deep run as he carried them through the group stage and scored prominent goals in key moments during the knockout rounds. He suffered a knee injury that seems to be chronic and could haunt him for the balance of his career. If he is not at his best, then who shoulders the goal scoring load? Bale is set for a breakout, but will his prime ever be as good as Ronaldo's peak? Will he even reach that level during this season or will that be a few years away? Will Rodriguez fit in with the side and help score more goals? If Ronaldo is healthy, then he can continue to work his magic and will help the side compete for the title. But without arguably the greatest Champions League player of all time at the peak of his powers, this team's chances diminish significantly.
Can Real Madrid retain its Champions League title in 2014-15?
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