Winter Preview 2014: Will 'The Hunger Games,' 'Interstellar' and 'The Hobbit' Succeed at the Box Office?
After a slumping summer box office, one of the worst in 10 years, studios are rethinking their strategies for upcoming fall and winter season. A number of tentpole films are slated to open, and some are huge risks as they are either original films or start up franchises.
One of the biggest films of September is "The Maze Runner." The new movie is based on the popular young adult trilogy written by James Dashner.
Fox has released a number of trailers over the summer trying to obtain buzz. However, a September release is never the most vital for an upcoming franchise as children are back in school. According to early predictions, the movie is tracking for a $21 million opening, and this number alone indicates "Maze Runner" won't be the next big franchise.
The young adult novel adaptation is a hard sell these days because of the overabundance of them and the fact that the majority are never received favorably by critics. Fox may have a hard time with this tentpole, and this may be the only film that ever gets made in the series.
On Nov. 7, Paramount will release the ambitious new Christopher Nolan film "Interstellar." The science fiction flick is generating a lot of buzz especially since Nolan created "Inception" and "The Dark Knight" trilogy. However, the question most pundits are wondering about it is whether it will reach the success of his previous works. There is no doubt this film will be a big seller. But will it be what people expect? And will it be the big awards player most pundits predict?
"Night at the Museum: Secret of the Tomb" is another film that is going into theaters with high expectations. Back in 2009, the sequel "Night at the Museum: Battle at the Smithsonian" was unable to meet the box office gross of the original 2006 film. With audiences suffering from franchise fatigue, it is questionable that this third installment will even reach the $100 million mark; the second film "Battle of the Smithsonian" only reached $177 million compared to the original's $250 million.
Additionally, Fox has targeted a Dec. 19 release date which falls on the same date as the last Hobbit film and "Annie." The latter two could easily gobble up "Night at the Museum's" targeted audience, and this could make the Fox release one of the biggest flops of the season.
Speaking of "The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies," Warner Bros. will have a lot of work to do to relive the magic of the original Lord of the Rings trilogy. The first two Hobbit films rank among the worst reviewed films and the worst grossing films in the Middle Earth saga. Audiences have been disappointed by the first two films in the series, and therefore, it could lead to audiences not returning for "Battle of the Five Armies." Warner Bros. will most likely depend on the reviews and word-of-mouth if it is to have a big success with this feature.
Out of the big blockbusters, there is only one certainty. That film is "The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 1." Not only did the first two films break records making over $800 million domestically cumulatively, but they also scored rave reviews and also expanded the franchise's audience beyond the book fans.
The third film will bring back Jennifer Lawrence and the late Philip Seymour Hoffman and will add Julianne Moore to the series. Lionsgate has been previewing the film for months, and based on the reaction to the trailers, this movie will likely become the best grossing feature of the year.
There are a couple of minor sequels that will try to surprise and exceed expectations. One of the big sequels is "Horrible Bosses 2." Back in 2011, the original film made $117 million and was one of the breakout hits of the summer. While the sequel is not coming out in the summer, Warner Bros. has timed it for the holiday season.
Similarly, Paramount has timed the sequel to "Hot Tub Time Machine" for a Christmas release. The 2010 film was also big winter surprise, and the company is trying to relive the magic of the original.
Other films that studios hope will break out include the musicals "Into the Woods," "Annie," the Bible epic "Exodus: Gods and Kings" and the comedy "Dumb and Dumber To."