While Russia's geopolitical tactics appear to be calculated, U.S. officials say that Russian President Vladimir Putin has been "improvising" throughout the Ukraine crisis and does not have an overarching plan.  

According to U.S. officials and experts on the Kremlin, Putin does not have a set plan on whether to continue supporting the pro-Russia separatists or withdraw from the crisis.

"There's been a lot of improvisation by Putin, and it's been a challenge to anticipate," a senior U.S. official told NBC News. 

The officials, who all spoke with NBC on the condition of anonymity, said Putin's actions in Ukraine run a risk of "unintended consequences," such as the accidental downing of Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 on July 17. The flight was allegedly shot down by rebels with a Russian surface-to-air missile. 

Officials say Putin was encouraged by the success of pro-Russia Ukrainian separatists taking over Crimea in March. The separatists were led by "little green men," which is a term used by Ukrainian officials to describe Russian-speaking soldiers who did not wear insignias and were believed to have been backed by Putin and Russia. Moscow's annexation of the peninsula prompted the first round of U.S. and European sanctions against Russia. 

"Crimea, more than anything, was impromptu," one official said. "The 'little green men' were there to exert influence over Ukraine. But something flipped, and once the Crimean Parliament voted to accede to Russia and there was evidence that a vast majority of Russians wanted it, Putin went along."

Putin then supplied the pro-Russia rebels on the border with weapons, a move that backfired when the militants accidentally shot down the Malaysia flight thinking it was a Ukrainian war plane, killing all 298 people on board. 

Yet, instead of backing off after the tragic mistake, Putin decided to escalate his influence in Ukraine. 

Moscow provided the rebels with military equipment and allegedly launched attacks at Ukrainian military forces from Russian soil. 

Putin only has a few options, and they will result in either an escalation of the conflict by bringing Russian troops into the fray or a continuation of providing separatists with supplies so they can fight Ukrainian troops. Or, he can stop supplying the rebels, and they will simply abandon their cause. 

Continuing to aid the separatists would not be in Putin's best interest, as the Russian economy was already sluggish prior to the sanctions and is now being crippled by economic and energy sanctions. 

However, according to NBC News, Putin's aggression in Ukraine has actually improved his approval ratings among the Russian people; his approval rating is now in the 80s. If Putin eases his aggression in Ukraine, the nationalist sentiment brewing in Russia will be reversed. 

As of now, U.S. officials still claim that Putin is "winging it."

"Putin is improvising," Steve Sestanovich of the Council of Foreign Relations told NBC News. "The question is, what are his goals and how committed is he to them? To me, the policy is starting to look like a loser -- but we don't know how much he's prepared to give" to reach a settlement. 

While Putin lacks a long-term strategy, it is clear that he aims to bolster Russian influence and re-establish Russia's Soviet-era power. 

Putin traveled to Latin America a few weeks ago in order to bolster diplomatic and economic relations with Latin American countries, which will further increase Russia's power, as well as foment more antipathy toward Russia from the United States. 

Although Putin is trying to show Russia's might, he is acting out of insecurity, as Russia is lacking in economic robustness.  

While Putin wants to exert his influence, he may back off from aiding the separatists, as the U.S. and E.U. sanctions could trigger a liquidity crisis because Western banks are unwilling to finance or refinance Russian corporate debt. 

However, considering Putin's rash actions over the past few months, a scaling down of Russian aggression is not guaranteed.