Midterm Election 2014 New Hampshire House Polls: Millennial Marilinda Garcia Takes Lead Over Incumbent Ann McLane Kuster
A conservative Latina millennial GOP candidate has found herself in a statistical "dead heat" against the Democratic incumbent in the race for a House of Representatives seat.
Overall Figures:
Republican candidate and current New Hampshire state representative Marilinda Garcia has been campaigning against incumbent Democratic Rep. Ann McLane Kuster to represent the state's 2nd Congressional District in the House of Representatives. Since Garcia officially won the Republican primary election in early September, Kuster has had a clear advantage over her. Based on the WMUR Granite State Poll by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center, more voters leaned towards Garcia despite both candidates receiving high unpopular ratings.
Among survey respondents "leaning" towards voting a candidate, Garcia narrowly beat Kuster with 41 percent to 37 percent, respectively. Nineteen percent of voters are still undecided and could sway the Nov. 4 Election Day outcome.
Surveying "likely voters" slightly improved Kuster's performance. Likely voters favored the Democratic incumbent with 36 percent, but the Republican challenger received support of 34 percent of people polled. Kuster and Garcia also have a large "undecided" factor among likely voters, as 28 percent were unsure who to vote for in November.
The favorability ratings for both Garcia and Kuster are low. Kuster received a 28 percent favorability rating, while 37 percent share an unfavorable view of the Democratic candidate. Garcia's favorability rating was lower than Kuster's with 24 percent. Garcia's unfavorable rating was lower than the incumbent with 27 percent, but 43 percent said they were unsure about the Republican.
"The unpopularity of both candidates make the race for the 2nd District seat a volatile one," noted the University of New Hampshire Survey Center report, recognizing that Garcia has become "considerably better known, but less popular, in recent months" while Kuster's ratings "remain low."
Millennials:
Despite Garcia's age, the polling data showed no "favorable" advantage among millennial respondents between the ages of 18 and 34. Millennials gave Garcia a 13 percent favorable rating, and an equal unfavorable rating. Most millennials -- 64 percent --were unsure about Garcia. Kuster's ratings among millennials were different. While Kuster also received a 13 percent favorable rating, millennials shared a 37 percent unfavorable rating of the Democratic incumbent. With 35 percent, millennials were also unsure of Kuster.
Among likely millennial voters, Garcia led with a 12-point advantage. The Republican received 35 percent to the Democrat's 23 percent. Most millennials were undecided as 39 percent "don't know" who to vote for next month. Kuster showed gains with likely voters over 35 years old.
With millennials "leaning" towards a candidate, Garcia's lead increased. Garcia received 47 percent to Kuster's 23 percent, but 27 percent were undecided.
The WMUR Granite State Poll surveyed 681 randomly selected adults, including 532 likely voters, from New Hampshire between Sept. 29 and Oct. 5. Of the 681 respondents, 340 people were from New Hampshire's 2nd District.