Colorado Senate Election Update: Cory Gardner's Lead Slips as Incumbent Mark Udall Makes Small Gains in New Poll
U.S. Rep. Cory Gardner, the Republican candidate in Colorado's U.S. Senate race, has seen his lead shortened against Democratic incumbent Sen. Mark Udall in a new poll.
Quinnipiac University's latest poll has the Republican representative with a 6-percentage-point lead against the Democrat senator. While independent candidate Steve Shogan received 8 percent of the poll, Garnder accrued 47 percent to Gardner's 41 percent among likely voters.
Despite Gardner's lead, the latest polling data represent a small fall from Quinnipiac's previous figures. Gardner had an 8-point lead in Quinnipiac's survey in Sept. 18. In comparison to the new poll, released Oct. 16, Gardner went from 48 percent to 47 percent. In return, Udall increased his lead by 1-percentage point, from 40 percent to 41 percent.
The independent candidate could play a factor in the voting booth come Election Day. Without the option of Shogan, Gardner's lead decreases. Without Shogan out of the race, Gardner maintains a lead, but it's 49 percent to Udall's 44 percent. Without Shogan, independent voters were nearly split between Gardner and Udall with 44 percent and 45 percent, respectively.
"With 19 days to go, can U.S. Sen. Mark Udall close a 6 percentage point gap in this marquee race that could tip the Senate to the GOP, or will U.S. Rep. Cory Gardner prevail?" Quinnipiac University's poll assistant director Tim Malloy said. "There is no significant movement in the race, but a 6-point gap is more interesting than an 8-point gap. Let's see what the next survey shows."
According to Quinnipiac, Udall received a 49 percent unfavorable rating, while 42 percent had a favorable view of the Democratic incumbent. Gardner received a higher favorable rating with 47 percent, while 41 percent have an unfavorable view. For Shogan, 86 percent said they "haven't heard enough" of the independent candidate. Six percent had a favorable view, while 7 percent was unfavorable.
When focusing on gender, men and women were clear with their senatorial preference. Women supported Udall with 49 percent while 40 percent favored Gardner. Shogan received 7 percent of the female vote. The voting spread widened with men in favor of the Republican challenger. Men chose Gardner with 53 percent to 34 percent for Udall. Shogan saw an increase than with women with 9 percent by men.