Oscar 2015 Predictions: Why Relativity Shouldn't Release 'Black or White' for Oscar Qualifiers
Yet another film will join the already overcrowded Oscar race.
This time, Relativity will release the highly-acclaimed film "Black or White," which premiered at the Toronto International Film Festival to Oscar buzz.
Originally titled "Black and White," the film tells the story of a grieving widower who is drawn into a custody battle over his granddaughter, whom he helped raise her entire life. The movie is based on a true story, and after competitive bidding, which also saw Open Road interested in the film, Relativity took the title.
Starring Kevin Costner and Octavia Spencer, the studio will campaign the film in the Best Actress and Best Actor category, as well as the Best Picture category. Interestingly, the film only has a 33 percent aggregate score on Rotten Tomatoes. Critics who enjoyed the film have called it, "A broad but touching dramedy about the racial barriers that divide us and the family ties that bind."
Others who gave it a negative review stated, "Kevin Costner shines in Mike Binder's disappointingly dull and safe-playing race relations drama."
This is already a bad sign as reviews are crucial to obtain Oscar nominations. Additionally, Relativity has never been nominated for an Oscar. The company came close last year with "Don Jon." That movie obtained Indie Spirit Award nominations, Gotham nominations and several critics' nominations. Other than that, the studio has not been a force in the awards race.
Relativity's late release seems a like a bad idea, especially when its big campaign strategy will be for Best Actor and Best Actress. The actor race is already crowded with Benedict Cumberbatch, Eddie Redmayne, Michael Keaton and Steve Carell already considered locks and Ralph Fiennes, Bradley Cooper, Timothy Spall, Miles Teller, Channing Tatum, Jack O'Connell, Oscar Isaac and David Oyelowo obtaining buzz. Costner is on no one's radar, and with such a crowded field, it is hard to get to the top. Unless Relativity can convince critics, this nomination is unlikely to occur.
Meanwhile, Spencer has a better shot. The actress race is said to be extremely weak this year. However, a number of studios recently announced that certain films will have Oscar qualifying rounds for Best Actress. These films include "Still Alice," "Miss Julie" and "Map to the Stars." The difference between these films and "Black or White" is that those films have a lot more buzz and studios with more experience in the awards race.
Spencer already has an Oscar and she has had better received films in the past. Last year, The Weinstein Company was unable to obtain an Oscar nomination for her acclaimed performance in "Fruitvale Station."
As for the Best Picture category, late entries have a hard time getting in. There are still a number of films that have not been seen which have more buzz and have companies with more experience in the awards race.
Relativity's ultimate plan is likely to fail this year once again. As noted in a previous article, late Oscar qualifying campaigns never work because the buzz is not built up naturally, and it is imposed on the audiences and voters. The company should have waited until next year to build buzz and a proper campaign. Broad Green Pictures, which just opened this year, had a number of Oscar candidates but decided to release the films next year to avoid competition and to plan its campaign strategy.
IFC Films did the same with Richard Gere's "Time Out of Mind," while the Weinstein Company delayed the highly-anticipated "Macbeth" adaptation.
"Black or White" also stars Anthony Mackie and Jennifer Ehle, and Relativity will release the film through its newly-formed multicultural division. A release date has not been assigned.