Latino Vote 2014 Statistics: Voter Representation in 'Competitive' US Election Races Defended by Latino, Voter Registration Organizations Despite Projections
Reports indicating the Latino vote will not play a vital role among the "competitive" congressional elections have national Latino and voter registration organizations talking and defending the impact of the voting population.
The national organizations have commented on reports published by The New York Times and Pew Research Center. In regards to the Pew Research Center, the report titled "Latino Voters and the 2014 Midterm Elections" found 96 percent of the eligible Latino voter population live in congressional districts without a competitive race. Pew's report said the competitive Senate races are Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana and North Carolina. Except for Colorado, the remaining states have an eligible Latino population of 6 percentage points or less. In Kentucky's case, its eligible Latino voter population is 51,000, or 1.6 percent of the 3.3 million overall eligible voter population.
The New York Times reports, titled "Why House Republicans Alienate Hispanics: They Don't Need Them" and "The Methodology Behind the Upshot's Estimates of Hispanic Republicans," also detailed the role Latino voters had in 2012 and may have in this year's midterm elections. Journalist Nate Cohn wrote that despite political analysts suggesting Republicans should try to appeal to Latino voters, GOP leaders have shown "little sign of doing so." Cohn reported a reason for Republicans not going after Latinos is because they "still have a real chance" of not only keeping control of the House of Representatives but also regaining the Senate even if Republicans "lost every single Hispanic voter in the country" based on analysis by The New York Times' The Upshot.
"We're definitely disappointed with the reports. We think they're missing the points," said League of United Latin American Citizens (LULAC) National Executive Director Brent Wilkes, who noted he doesn't dispute the data, but the reports were published with the "wrong spin."
Wilkes told Latin Post that the fact 14 House seats could swing from one political party to another based on the Latino vote is "pretty significant," but "it just doesn't make sense to me to apply that kind of standard to assessing whether or not a vote is relevant or not in a congressional election."
Wilkes said, "What's understood in the article, but really isn't a proven fact, is that by beating up on Latinos and basically not being supportive of the Latino communities, that somehow wins votes from other communities. I just don't think that analysis has been done, and I don't think that's accurate.
"What is important is the Latino vote growing. ... The Latino vote is more influential every single election cycle, and politicians should be paying attention to the new voters coming into their districts because they're either coming of age or moving to districts or registering for the first time."
The reports come as national voter registration efforts toward Latinos were strengthened by organizations including Rock the Vote, Voto Latino, Univision Communications Inc., U.S. Hispanic Chamber of Commerce and LULAC.
"With 66,000 American Latinos turning 18 every month, this demographic has the potential to impact elections at all levels this year," Rock the Vote President Ashley Spillane told Latin Post. "In 2014, it is not just control of the U.S. Senate that is being decided in key states. Latino voters -- especially young Latino voters -- have the power to decide the composition of state legislatures around the country; gubernatorial races; and have their voices heard on key ballot measures around education, prison reform, marijuana and many more."
Spillane added that partnerships with organizations such as Voto Latino to register thousands of young Latinos across the U.S. is important and to make sure registered voters are informed, show up to vote and have their voices heard on Nov. 4 Election Day.
"I don't quite get The New York Times analysis. I just don't think they're looking past the true picture that the Latino vote is growing. ... It's important and picking up strength, and there's no evidence that it's slowing down whatsoever. In fact, if anything, because Latinos have a lot of issues that are pending and haven't been addressed, there is absolutely still a lot of interest in participating in elections this year and we should see a higher level of turnout than seen in the past," Wilkes said, based on voter registration efforts.
"The only intent was to illustrate, in stark terms, the extent to which congressional Republicans are insulated from the political views of Hispanic or Latino voters," Cohn said in a statement to Latin Post regarding The New York Times' reports. "I am extraordinarily skeptical of the view that a piece like this could have any effect on turnout."
Larry Gonzalez, president of the public policy organization The Raben Group, said there's truth to the reports, adding, "I don't think anyone's trying to deny the truth that when you look at a competitive state like Arkansas where there's a competitive U.S. Senate race, people would go and think in their mind, without knowing anything else, and say, 'Well, there's not too many Latinos there.'"
Gonzalez added that the "smart" campaign consultants and managers should still look at locations, such as Little Rock, to attract voters.
"We're not talking about millions, we're not talking about hundreds of thousands but even if we're talking about 25,000 or 15,000 [Latino voters]. If you're a good campaign consultant and manager and you're going to overlook potential 15-to-25,000 voters, which to many people may seem like a small number, doesn't sound like very smart politics," Gonzalez said and added that the numbers of Latino voters among the competitive congressional races could still "make or break a race."
The Raben Group president highlighted Colorado's U.S. Senate race between Republican candidate Cory Gardner and Democratic incumbent Mark Udall. Gonzalez said it has been clear the Latino vote has been considered in Colorado and claimed every campaign studies voter outreach and persuasion aimed at the Latino community. He said the campaigners would "crunch numbers and budget" to decide if the effort is needed.
"We think the investment is always worth it, particularly for the future, where the community is beginning to spread out beyond Texas and California," Gonzalez said, noting states such as Georgia and North Carolina, with a growing Latino population, may play a role in politics in the future.
"There are more registered Latino voters today than there ever been in our nation's history, and probably about a million more over the previous election cycle," Wilkes said. "It's absolutely a pretty significant figure."
According to the National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials, 25.2 million Latinos are eligible to vote in the 2014 midterm elections, which is a record rate and equates to 11 percent of all eligible voters in the U.S.