New Hampshire Elections 2014 Polls: 'Too Close to Call' for Governor, Senate, House Elections in Granite State
Registered New Hampshire voters will have a busy Tuesday as the Granite State's Election Day consist of gubernatorial, Senate and House elections.
Gubernatorial Election:
Polling data from the University of New Hampshire and television affiliate WMUR has the state's gubernatorial election as "too close to call." Democratic incumbent Gov. Maggie Hassan previously had a "commanding lead" against Republican candidate Walt Havenstein, but the latest survey results showed her lead decreasing and undecided voters sway toward the challenger.
The WMUR and UNH poll has Hassan with 45 percent to Havenstein's 40 percent, but 14 percent were undecided. If the undecided voters were tasked to select a candidate, they are leaning towards Hassan, who received 47 percent and 43 percent went for Havenstein. Nine percent remained undecided.
The survey's respondents, however, predict Hassan will be re-elected on Tuesday night. While 64 percent expect the Democratic incumbent to win, 21 percent think Havenstein will emerge victorious.
Millennials, the largest age group in the U.S. between the ages of 18 and 34, gave Hassan a double-digit advantage against Havenstein. Hassan received 54 percent of the millennial vote compared to 33 percent for Havenstein, while 12 percent were undecided.
The WMUR and UNH poll was conducted with 757 likely voters from New Hampshire between Oct. 29 and Nov. 2.
The New England College poll, however, has Hassan with a larger lead than Havenstein. Among the registered likely voters from New Hampshire, Hassan received 51 percent to 43.7 percent for Havenstein. Independent and undeclared voters favored Hassan with 51.4 percent to 42.9 percent for Havenstein.
Women overwhelmingly supported Hassan with 55.4 percent compared to 39.2 percent for Havenstein. Among male voters, it was a narrow result with Havenstein ahead of Hassan. The Republican candidate received 49.8 percent to the Democrat's 45.9 percent.
The New England College poll for the state's gubernatorial election was made up of 1,526 likely voters between Oct. 31 and Nov. 1.
U.S. Senate:
The Granite State's sole U.S. Senate race primarily consist of Democratic incumbent Jeanne Shaheen and Republican candidate Scott Brown, former senator of Massachusetts. Similar to the gubernatorial race, the senate election is considered "too close to call" by WMUR and UNH.
If the election was held today, according to the WMUR and UNH survey, 46 percent of respondents said their vote will go in Shaheen's favor, while Brown received 43 percent. Ten percent of voters were undecided, and 2 percent would vote for another candidate.
When the undecided voters were asked to consider the candidate they lean toward, the senate race's voting spread narrowed. Shaheen would then receive 47 percent while Brown accounted for 45 percent. Three percent would vote for another candidate, but 6 percent remained undecided.
Among likely millennial voters, Shaheen received 48 percent while 36 percent supported Brown, but 16 percent were unsure.
Despite the "too close to call" statement, 55 percent of overall voters expect Shaheen to be re-elected, considerably higher than Brown's 30 percent expectation to win.
The New England College poll also had a slim voting spread between Brown and Shaheen but a different outcome compared to WMUR and UNH's survey. The New England College survey has Brown ahead of Shaheen but only by 0.5 percentage points. Brown received 48.7 percent and 48.2 percent for Shaheen. Brown also won among independent and undeclared voters with 49.6 percent to 47 percent for Shaheen.
The voting results differed between men and women. Shaheen won the female vote with 51.6 percent while Brown accrued 44.8 percent. Brown won the male voters with 53.2 percent while 44.3 percent favored Shaheen. More women than men were polled with 816 to 710, respectively.
U.S. House of Representatives:
New Hampshire's two congressional districts are up for election.
For New Hampshire's 2nd Congressional District, Democratic incumbent Ann McLane Kuster secured a lead against Republican candidate Marilinda Garcia in the WMUR and UNH poll. Among the state's likely voters, 47 percent said they will vote for Shaheen while Garcia received 36 percent. Fifteen percent of likely voters were undecided. If the undecided picked a candidate they leaned toward supporting, Kuster and Garcia improved their percentages to 49 percent and 38 percent, respectively -- 12 percent still remained undecided.
Garcia gained some support among millennials, her age group and a demographic she has campaigned toward. Shaheen still led the poll among millennials with 47 percent, while Garcia received 39 percent. Fourteen percent of millennials were undecided.
From the New England College poll, Kuster also led the survey with 52.8 percent to 41.7 percent for Garcia.
The 2nd Congressional District survey by UNH and WMUR comprised of 352 likely voters. The New England College poll included 748 responses from the same district.
In New Hampshire's 1st Congressional District, Democratic incumbent Carol Shea-Porter is in a tighter election campaign than those in the 2nd Congressional District. Shea-Porter has been campaigning against Republican candidate Frank Guinta, and the candidates will face each for the third consecutive election. Guinta won the same race against Shea-Porter in 2010, but she regained the seat in 2012.
Ahead of this year's midterm election, 45 percent of likely voters within the 1st Congressional District would vote for Guinta while 41 percent favored Shea-Porter. Fourteen percent of voters were undecided. If the undecided voters had to support a candidate they leaned toward, then the election is tied at 47 percent, each.
Millennials overwhelmingly supported Shea-Porter with 56 percent. Guinta received 26 percent of the millennial vote while 19 percent were undecided.
The New England College Poll showed Guinta with a larger lead. The Republican candidate received 52.2 percent to the Democratic incumbent's 42.9 percent.
The 1st Congressional District poll by WMUR and UNH included 405 residents within the district while the New England College poll had 778 responses.
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