Oscars 2015 State of the Race: Are 'Birdman' 'A Most Violent Year' & 'Boyhood' Front-Runners?
With the start of December awards, madness began with three major organizations handing out Best Picture awards. In addition, the Academy Awards announced the 15 shortlisted documentaries that will compete for a nomination.
On Monday "Boyhood" won the New York Film Critics, while "Birdman" took home the Gotham Award. Then the National Board of Review surprised pundits and gave "A Most Violent Year" the Best Picture. With these first awards, the season is turning out to be one of the most unpredictable in years. For months, many pundits have stressed the lack of a frontrunner and have noted that no film really stood out at the festival circuit.
However, some may argue that, at this time last year, "12 Years a Slave" had not won a single critics prize. The film lost the three organizations before going on to win the Oscar for Best Picture. The difference was that "12 Years a Slave" had emerged out of the festival circuit as the clear-cut front-runner .
The current Best Picture Oscar race now looks like a free-for-all and it will be interesting to see how it shapes up once the L.A Film Critics and Boston Film Critics announce their awards.
The Best Actor race also seems a bit of a split race. While Michael Keaton won the National Board of Review and the Gotham, it seems he faces tough competition. Timothy Spall unexpectedly won the Best Actor award at the New York Film Critics for his work in "Mr. Turner" while Oscar Isaac surprised and tied Keaton at the NBR. The critics awards have already shut out key performances by Benedict Cumberbatch for "The Imitation Game," Steve Carell for "Foxcatcher" and Eddie Redmayne for "The Theory of Everything." If they continue to open up the race, it will be interesting to see how the Academy narrows down the Oscar nominees.
The Best Actress race seems to be lining up as most predicted. Julianne Moore won the Gotham and the NBR for her work in "Still Alice." However, the NYFCC surprised by giving Marion Cotillard the win for "The Immigrant" and "Two Days, One Night." Like the Best Actor race, it seems that the critics are opening up the category and showing performances that have been ignored or haven't received the attention that was expected.
The Best Director race also looks like a wide open category. While Richard Linklater claimed the NYFCC award for "Boyhood," Clint Eastwood took home the award at the NBR for "American Sniper." The category continues to be questionable and it may be unlikely either director makes it into the Academy Award nominations.
The foreign film race also seems to be a huge question mark once again. This year there are a dozen strong contenders and Poland's "Ida" seemed to be the strongest. While it won the NYFCC, it lost the NBR to Argentina's "Wild Tales."
"Wild Tales" has yet to be released in the U.S., but the film was submitted by Argentina and made a huge splash at the festival circuit. It also became a sensation in Latin America when it opened. It's too early to predict, but perhaps this could end up being a two-film race.
Unlike the aforementioned categories, the documentary award seems like a two-horse race category. The Academy recently announced the top 15 documentaries that would be competing and among those were front-runners "Life Itself" about the life of Roger Ebert and "Citizenfour" about Edward Snowden. Both films have already won top prizes in their category. "Citizenfour" won the Best Documentary award at the NYFCC and the Gotham award while "Life Itself" took the award at the National Board of Review.
Like the documentary category the Supporting acting races seem to be taking shape in the way most pundits predicted. J.K Simmons won the NYFCC in the Supporting Actor category for his work in "Whiplash" while Edward Norton won Supporting actor at the NBR for "Birdman." Both actors are likely to compete alongside Mark Ruffalo for "Foxcatcher" and Ethan Hawke for "Boyhood."
The Supporting Actress category has already seen Patricia Arquette win for "Boyhood" at the NYFCC and Jessica Chastain win for "A Most Violent Year." Both actresses are also expected to land nominations at the Oscars and will likely compete against Keira Knightley for "The Imitation Game," Meryl Streep for "Into the Woods" and Emma Stone for "Birdman."
With Golden Globes, SAG nominations and more awards being announced next week, the Oscar race could easily shift in even more unpredictable ways.