Ballon d'Or 2015 Predictions: Are Goalies' History With Award on Manuel Neuer's Side?
Manuel Neuer made headlines earlier this week when he landed a Top Three spot for the FIFA Ballon d'Or.
While many expect Cristiano Ronaldo to lift the trophy in January, Neuer's arrival on the scene is already a huge triumph.
Goalscorers are usually the ones most favored to lift the trophy, making it difficult for defenders, midfielders and keepers to have a chance. Of these categories, goalies undoubtedly struggle the most to compete in the category. Not only do they often get overlooked, but their position chains them to the posts. Only one man has lifted this iconic trophy in the sport's history and he did it back in 1963. His name was Lev Yashin.
There have been goalies in the Top Three throughout the history of the award. Germany's Oliver Kahn finished third in voting in 2001 and 2002, while Gianluigi Buffon's tremendous World Cup performance earned him the second place in voting.
The only other notable cases include 1973, when Dino Zoff finished second in voting behind Johan Cruyff, and 1976 when Czech keeper Ivo Viktor finished third in the voting.
Other than that, goalies have struggled to put their stamp on the award.
Neuer's task is actually a bit ragged, as well. Many state that his tremendous footwork has revolutionized the position by re-establishing the role of a keeper. Neuer is not just a shotstopper, but also a sweeper. He can come out of his box to ease the pressure on his defense. Moreover, his fantastic feet allow teams to play a high line.
But his revolution is not enough to overcome the traditional emphasis on goalscoring as the determining factor in winning the Ballon d'Or.
Neuer was the German selected from the World Cup winners to represent his nation in the Top Three. But is winning a World Cup enough to win the award?
In 2010, Lionel Messi took home the award while World Cup champions Andres Iniesta and Xavi settled for third and fourth, respectively. Spain's goalie Iker Casillas, the one who made an iconic reflex save in the final to preserve a 0-0 draw, finished seventh in voting. Neuer is obviously being given more credit that Casillas was back then, but Casillas was one of the main reasons Spain lifted the trophy in Soccer City. Furthermore, Casillas, who also made great cases in 2008 and 2012 was unable to break into the Top Three. In 2008, he was tremendous for Spain in its first major trophy in decades. He finished fourth in voting that year. In 2012, he was inpenetrable and put up five straight clean sheets to lead Spain to its third straight international trophy. For his tremendous work, he finished sixth.
That said, Buffon's heroics in 2006 secured him a second-place finish and this should inspire hope for Neuer. But Kahn's pristine goalkeeping in 2002, arguably the best in a World Cup to date, was not enough to lift him further than third. Neuer obviously has the tournament victory on his side, however.
No goalie from any other World Cup final managed to finish in the Top Three for the voting.
However, Neuer's "stats" pale when compared with these net minders. Casillas only conceded twice in the entire 2010 tournament and pitched fours straight clean sheets and five overall. Buffon only conceded two goals the entire tournament (one of them was an own goal) while pitching four straight clean sheets up until the final. Kahn also pitched four clean sheets in a row (five overall) on his way to losing the final; he only conceded three goals in the entire tournament.
He never allowed four goals in the World Cup and did not pitch consecutive clean sheets, at all. What he does have in his favor is that his team was not always as solid defensively as the Italian or Spanish side that won the World Cup in 2006 and 2010.
What this shows is that recent history is certainly on Neuer's side. But it also emphasizes how overlooked goalies are with regards to this award, especially those that have arguably been better in the World Cup than he was.
It will be interesting to see ultimately where voters stood on this point. Is a World Cup win enough to hand a keeper a Ballon d'Or award?