Oscars 2015 Predictions: How Do SAG Nominations Affect the Oscar Race?
On Dec. 10 the SAG award nomination were announced with Alejandro González Iñárritu's "Birdman" leading the nominees.
The SAG Awards are known as some of the best predictors of the Academy Awards as the voters from the organization make up the biggest body of Academy voters.
A number of SAG winners have gone on to win the Oscar and the last four actors who won the SAG took home the Oscar.
So what do these SAG nominees say about the Academy Awards race this year?
1. Boyhood, Birdman, The Imitation Game and The Theory of Everything are the Frontrunners
All four films have had huge marketing campaigns and have been critical and festival favorites. The SAG awards confirmed what all pundits suggested from the start. "Boyhood," "The Imitation Game" and "The Theory of Everything" all scored three nominations including a Best Cast nomination while "Birdman" landed four nominations including a Best Cast nomination. Since the Best Cast category was established at the SAG awards, no film has won Best Picture at the Oscars without a Best Cast nomination. As a result, one of these four films will most likely go on to win the Oscar in February.
2. December Movies are Ignored!
Except for a sole nomination for "Into the Woods" in the Best Supporting Actress category, all late December releases were ignored, including "Selma." The film has been generating buzz and many pundits have considered it a lock since it premiered at the AFI Film Festival. Other December films that were snubbed included "Unbroken," which received a stunt nomination, "American Sniper," "Inherent Vice," "Big Eyes," "Mr. Turner" and "A Most Violent Year," which also did not screen on time either. The movies are still likely to get nominated for the Oscars but their chances of winning Best Pictures are very low.
3. The Grand Budapest Hotel is Still in the Race
Despite getting a Gotham Nomination for Best Film and winning at the LA Film Critics for Best Screenplay, Wes Anderson's movie has been seen as a Dark Horse in the race. The movie's nomination in the Best Cast category marks the first time an Anderson film is nominated for a SAG award and it brings the critically acclaimed film back into the conversation. However, it is important to note that every year at least one of the Best Cast nominees does not transfer over to the Oscars. For example, last year "Lee Daniel's The Butler" and "August: Osage County" scored Best Cast nominations but neither one was nominated for Best Picture. "The Butler" did not even receive a single Oscar nomination. Other Best Cast nominees that have not transferred over to the Academy Awards include "The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel," "Bridesmaids," "Nine" and "Hairspray." "The Grand Budapest Hotel" has definitely received a boost. Fox Searchlight needs to continue campaign harder.
4. All Four Acting Categories Feature Surprises
The fact that the four acting categories saw surprises in the nominations demonstrates that the fifth slot has yet to be settled. Robert Duvall's nomination for "The Judge" was the least surprising in the Best Supporting Actor category as many pundits predicted his nomination. However, "The Judge" has not been on the radar for the past few months. Jennifer Aniston's nomination for "Cake" was also a surprise as the film scored mixed reviews out of Toronto and is only receiving a one-week qualifying run. Aniston has not been on the radar like Hilary Swank or Amy Adams. Jake Gyllenhaal's nomination for Best Actor for his performance in "Nightcrawler" was also surprising because the movie was at first thought to be too genre-specific for awards voters. However, Nightcrawler" has recently surged, especially after scoring four Indie Spirit Award nominations.
The biggest surprise, however, came in the Best Supporting Actress category. Naomi Watts, who was not even on the radar, beat out Laura Dern and Jessica Chastain for a spot for her work on "St. Vincent." The nomination demonstrates Harvey Weinstein's great campaigning skills