Oscars 2015 Predictions: Why the Best Actor Race Could See Surprises
The Best Actor race is among the most crowded categories in years as there are a number of actors who are vying for a spot at the Oscars.
At the moment, three actors are truly locks: Benedict Cumberbatch for "The Imitation Game"; Eddie Redmayne for "The Theory of Everything"; and Michael Keaton for "Birdman." All three of these performances come from films that have strong support from critics and have been nominated for SAG awards for Best Cast and Best Picture at the Golden Globes.
There are three actors that are vying for the final two spots. David Oyelowo is competing for his performance in "Selma" with Jake Gyllenhaal for "Nightcrawler" and Steve Carell for "Foxcatcher." While Carell and Oyelowo's films are likely to get Best Picture nominations, Gyllenhaal's film has a long shot at the Best Picture. This would put Gyllenhaal at a disadvantage. However, Carell has not been a critics' favorite as most expected and "Foxcatcher" could end up off the list, especially since it is extremely dark and may be too morbid for the Academy.
Meanwhile, Oyelowo was not nominated for SAG and is also not as well-known as the other two stars. This could definitely affect his chances of the nomination.
On the other hand, Gyllenhaal's film has generated a lot of buzz in the past few weeks and scored key nominations, especially with the Indie Spirit Awards.
While these three actors are the strongest, there are many actors that can also affect their chances and could sneak into the race. For example, Timothy Spall is still considered a long shot in the race for his masterful performance in "Mr. Turner." He already won at the New York Film Critics and also won at the Cannes Film Festival, which is very influential. Many actors that have won at Cannes have went on to get nominated for the Academy Awards. For example, Javier Bardem won at Cannes for "Biutiful" and surprised when he was nominated at the Academy. Others include Jean Dujardin for "The Artist" and Bruce Dern for "Nebraska."
Another actor who could sneak into the category is Oscar Isaac for his performance in "A Most Violent Year." The film has obtained buzz and even won the National Board of Review for Best Picture. Isaac's performance also won the Best Actor award with the organization and was also nominated for the Gotham Award. Isaac missed out on a nomination for his performance in "Inside Llewyn Davis" last year and the Academy may want to make it up to him. However, a nomination is still unlikely since the film has not really broken through with the big organizations and has not widely screened.
Tom Hardy is also getting a lot of buzz for his work in "Locke," especially after winning for his performance at the LA Film Critics. He has also been nominated for a number of critics' organizations ad carries the film. However, A24 has not generated a big campaign for the film.
Bradley Cooper still has a chance to surprise for his work in "American Sniper." The film has not generated the support with organizations or critics as many supposed. However, Clint Eastwood films are favorites of the Academy and his films usually get acting nominations. Cooper's work is said to be a career high and if the Academy enjoys it, Cooper could still have a shot.
Other long shots include Joaquin Phoenix for his Golden Globe-nominated performance in "Inherent Vice," Ralph Fiennes for his work in "The Grand Budapest Hotel," Jack O'Connell for "Unbroken," Bill Murray for "St. Vincent" and Channing Tatum for "Foxcatcher."