Oscars 2015 Predictions & Nominations: J.K. Simmons Will Win Supporting Actor, But Who Will Take Fifth Slot?
The Best Supporting Actor race has become one of the most predictable categories of the year with one actor sweeping.
Going into the Oscar race, many pundits knew that J.K. Simmons was a big winner for his phenomenal work in "Whiplash." Simmons has a very showy part that hits all the right beats for an Oscar performance. As a result, he has become the front-runner in the category.
Critics have embraced him in every way as he has virtually swept the critics' awards and even got nominated for the SAG, the Golden Globes and Critics' Choice Awards.
The interesting thing about Simmons' current position in the race is he has chosen not to campaign the film or his performance. As a matter of fact he has stayed away from awards season chaos. If he were to win the Oscar race, the award would be proof that the art form is more powerful than the campaign itself. The last actor to win an Oscar and not campaign was Monique for her powerful performance in "Precious."
However, Simmons does not have it easy as he has Edward Norton right behind him. Norton has won a couple of awards for his work in "Birdman" and has been nominated for SAG, the Golden Globe and the Critics' Choice. The actor's performance is considered a tour de force and one of the best in his career.
Norton has been on the campaign trail, and he has been promoting the film everywhere. Norton could easily win especially since he has been nominated twice before and has failed to win. As a result, the Academy may feel like Norton deserves the recognition, and it could be more like a career achievement award.
The other two candidates that are considered locks for nominations are Mark Ruffalo for "Foxcatcher" and Ethan Hawke for "Boyhood." Ruffalo's turn in the film is very subtle, and it is more about the physical transformation. However, the film has very little fans and has not received the support pundits expected early on.
Hawke, on the other hand, has to compete with his co-star Patricia Arquette in "Boyhood." While they are not in the same category, Arquette has some of the more powerful scenes in the film and Academy members will definitely identify more with her performance more than with Hawke's incredibly low key turn. If the Academy is going to award a performance from "Boyhood," it will be Arquette's strong work. Hawke's award will be a nomination.
The final slot in the category is up for grabs between Robert Duvall for "The Judge" and Josh Brolin for "Inherent Vice." Both films received incredibly mixed reviews, and audiences did not see them. Neither one of these performances are likely to win especially because the films will not get nominated for Best Picture.
However, if the Academy is feeling like surprising pundits they have a slew of other actors to choose. For example, they could choose Michael Fassbender's turn in "Frank," Chris Pine's breakout work in "Into the Woods" or Christoph Waltz in "Big Eyes." However, if they are feeling like nominating an actor from a Best Picture nominee, the Academy could go for Tom Wilkinson, Tim Roth or Giovanni Ribisi for "Selma."
The Academy has been extremely unpredictable in the past years. For example last Jonah Hill was nominated for "The Wolf of Wall Street" after having been ignored throughout the season. The strength of his performance though was held by the fact that the film was nominated for Best Film. Other surprise nominees from Best Picture nominees included Waltz for "Django Unchained" and Max von Sydow for "Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close."
Other actors who could take the spot include Charlie Cox for "The Theory of Everything," John Goodman for "The Gambler" or even Tyler Perry for his breakout work in "Gone Girl."