Barcelona Transfer News & Rumors: Why Messi, Neymar & Company Will Not Be Competitive During 2015-16 Season
On Tuesday, the Court of Arbitration for Sport announced that it would reject Barcelona's had its appeal to have its year-long transfer ban rejected, thus leaving the team without the ability to make a single transfer in 2015.
Barcelona had been found guilty by FIFA of signing underage overseas players and was thus sanctioned.
"CAS has dismissed the appeal filed by FC Barcelona against FIFA regarding the decision issued by the Fifa Appeals Committee on August 19, 2014," said a statement by CAS.
For any team, especially a major club like Los Cules, this is a massive blow. So how exactly does this affect Barcelona over the long run and in the short run?
Here is a deeper look at the situation:
In the short run, this has serious implications. Essentially, the team Barcelona has at this very moment is the same group that the team will have to start the 2015-16 season. Of course, one must adjust for players exiting the team and the arrival of youngsters in Barca B that could come in and play key roles.
But the latter is highly unlikely to be a major factor. This season, some prospects such as Sergi Roberto, Rafinha and Munir El Haddadi have had a strong impact on the team, but they have found their playing time limited due to the continued play of veterans such as Andres Iniesta or Xavi Hernandez. Xavi and Iniesta continue to play mainly because of their status and familiarity with the system, but the team could hardly claim to see Xavi as the legend he once was. At 34, he is undoubtedly on his way out of town (he recently admitted that he was ready to go to New York this past summer). Moreover, Iniesta cannot seem to find a way to stay healthy and even he has yet to show his best form since 2014.
Throw in the budding rumors that Sergio Busquets might be on his way out of town and you have a team with barely any quality midfielders. Ivan Rakitic is certainly a great player, but he is nowhere near Xavi or Iniesta in their prime years. Rakitic, who was brought in to be the new midfield general, cannot even boast better statistics in 2014-15 than Xavi or Iniesta. He averages 1.1 key passes per game while Xavi averages 1.7; Rakitic actually averages more passes per game than the Spaniard (64.1 to 63.8). Iniesta averages 1.3 while making less passes per game than either Rakitic or Xavi.
The team's lineup at the start of the year seemed to rely on Rakitic, Iniesta and Busquets, but coach Luis Enrique was far from convinced and opted for giving Xavi more time. Even if this system did work out over the long haul, there lies another big issue--rest. Barcelona is competing in more than the league and will need to rotate its stars to remain healthy for the long haul. Relying on Rakitic, an aging Xavi and an unhealthy Iniesta is not the way to go forward. Especially in the midfield, which is so instrumental to Barcelona's success. That Cesc Fabregas sale this past summer has never loomed larger and could continue to hurt the team down the line.
An option would be to go with a double pivot in Javier Mascherano and Busquets while Rakitic sits in the hole behind the big offensive stars. But that would create more issues.
Mascherano has spent most of the season as a center back for Blaugrana and moving him would create a gap in that spot. Everyone knows that Gerard Pique is not the answer and Thomas Vermaelen remains one of the worst signings of the entire summer. Everyone that knows his history knows that he is unlikely to be any more reliable to start 2015-16.
That leaves the team relying on Jeremy Mathieu, who will be 31 to start the next campaign, Jordi Alba, the aging Dani Alves, Adriano, Marc Bartra and Martin Montoya to lead the way. Mathieu has had a good year but how long will he remain in his prime? Montoya remains young and unproven while Bartra, who has been exceptional this year, is a liability due to his small stature. Alba and Alves are great moving forward, but hardly adequate defending in general. It is far from as horrid as everyone claims (the team has only conceded seven goals in Spain this season), but far from secure. It works well by committee without any elite defenders. An injury or two to the defense could leave Barcelona in a very tight spot without much depth to make up for the losses.
They can reclaim Alex Song, who is on loan in England, but he never had the support of the club and would not solve all the issues. Gerard Deulofeu was expected to make the team this year, but was shipped off on loan yet again, an indication that he is not valued by Barcelona. Same for Cristian Tello and Ibrahim Affellay. Only Denis Suarez could be reclaimed to help out. The youngster is having a solid year at Sevilla, but he plays more of an attacking role and would hardly solve the issues in the center of the pitch for Barcelona.
There are some positives. While Marc-Andre Ter Stegen has been far from great in goal, Claudio Bravo has proven himself a capable keeper for his club. So at the very least the team does not have to consider the nightmares that Jose Manuel Pinto gave them when Victor Valdes went down.
And then there is the offense. As noted, Munir has come in and proven his worth and he is far down on the list because of the other top players the team has. Neymar, Luis Suarez and Lionel Messi are too good to contain and should help this team score goals and remain near the top. Messi is good for about 40 to 50 goals at the moment (unless he returns to the form he showcased three years ago) while Neymar and Suarez should fetch the team over 40 goals combined. Throw in Pedro, who is good for 10 goals a year, and the team should be able to score goals.
That is approximately 90 to 100 goals from four players, putting this team in a comfortable position in the league and in Europe. Of course, scoring is not the only ingredient to success, but at least Barcelona remains elite there and would not need to make changes.
Over the long run, this issue looms largest of all. Barcelona will not be able to make a transfer until January 2016, which is not a particularly great window for business. Put simply the team has not made a major transfer in the winter since it brought in Affellay in 2010-11. And we all know how that has worked out.
And it is not only Barcelona. Real Madrid's best transfer in during the winter was Diego Lopez in 2012-13 and that move was seen as a desperation pickup for a team living life without Iker Casillas. Some wondered whether it would work out at all. Aside from that Klaas-Jan Huntelaar, acquired in the winter of 2009, has been the team's best pickup in January. And he is no longer on the team.
The reason for this is simple. The top players are usually on decent-to-great teams and most of those teams are still in the race midway through the year. They are not going to ship off their top players with so much at stake. If anything, Barcelona might be able to pick up players from teams that are already packing their bags for the season. But those players are unlikely to save the day for Blaugrana.
This means that the next real opportunity for Barcelona to stock up and improve its squad is in the summer of 2016. At that point Xavi will be gone, Iniesta will be 32, Messi will be 29, Luis Suarez will be 29, Busquets will be 28, Rakitic will be 28 and Neymar will only be 24. In most of these cases, the players will still be in their primes, but their best years will be coming to an end. At that point, Barcelona will need to start thinking of a rebuild and could potentially see two of Messi and Suarez's prime years go to waste in front of a mediocre defense and midfield.