Ballon d'Or 2015 Predictions, Winners, Results: Does a Strong World Cup Lead to Best Player of the Year Award Historically?
While most see it as a done deal that Cristiano Ronaldo will hoist his second straight Ballon d'Or and his third overall, there are some that view Manuel Neuer as the true contender to run away with the individual honor.
Goaltending and the Ballon d'Or were analyzed in depth in a previous post, but one perspective is that Neuer's involvement in the World Cup-winning side should have a huge bearing on the outcome for the personal award. In fact, many have been vocal about it.
"Several players deserve the Ballon d'Or, but I'm of the opinion that in a World Cup year this award should go to a world champion," UEFA president Michel Platini said. "This is in line with what I said four years ago when, in my opinion, the prize should have been awarded to a Spanish player."
But how does international success factor into winning the big award and what are the implications for this year's race?
There have only been European and South American winners of the Ballon d'Or, so for this analysis, only the World Cup, the Euro Cup and the Copa America, the most prevalent international tournaments for these soccer federations, were considered. More importantly, the winners were European all through 1997 when Ronaldo from Brazilian became the first South American to win the accolade.
Since the award was started in 1956, in either of its forms, there have been 15 World Cup finals and 14 Euro Cup finals.
And since Ronaldo won the award in 1997, there have been five Copa America championships.
So how does being a major part of an international tournament correspond with the chances of winning the Ballon d'Or? Or more appropriately put, of the players that participated on contending sides (whether winners or close to winning a major tournament), how many have gone on to win the prestigious award?
World Cup winners who have gone on to win the Ballon d'Or in the same year include Bobby Charlton (1966), Paolo Rossi (1982), Lothar Matthaus (1990), Zinedine Zidane (1998), Ronaldo (2002) and Fabio Cannavaro (2006).
Only one player has won the award the year that he lost the World Cup final -- Johan Cruyff in 1974.
Winners of the Euro Cup final who have gone on to win the Ballon d'Or include Franz Beckenbauer (1972), Karl-Heinz Rummenigge (1980), Michel Platini (1984), Marco Van Basten (1988) and Matthias Sammer (1996).
Beckenbauer also won the Ballon d'Or after losing the Euro Cup final in 1976.
On the Copa America front, three players have won the Ballon d'Or the same year they lifted the CONMEBOL trophy -- Ronaldo (1997), Rivaldo (1999) and Kaka (2007).
Recent trends indicate international success is a major part of winning the big trophy since Ballon d'Or winners in three of the last four World Cups prior to 2014 have been winners of the tournament. Messi was the lone exception in 2010 when he beat out Spanish duo Xavi and Andres Iniesta for the individual prize. It was actually a controversial pick at the time as many felt Wesley Sneijder, who was in the World Cup final and won a treble with Inter Milan, was the most deserving player.
The Euro Cup has not had as great an impact on the award since no player to win a Euro Cup since 1996 has lifted the Ballon d'Or. And The Copa America does not have a big enough sample size.
In 2014, two of the Ballon d'Or finalists were World Cup finalists, and neither is a favorite to win the award. Manuel Neuer can certainly continue the trend and become the fourth World Cup winner in the last five tournaments to win the award, but his position as a goalie coupled with the fact he is up against a player who won a plethora of club trophies and scored more goals than anyone else should spell doom for the netminder.
Ironically, Ronaldo is the least successful of the three players internationally. He has made it to an international final on one occasion and has never won a major international trophy. Messi has failed to win one also but has participated in the Copa America final and World Cup final since his time with Argentina. Neuer meanwhile is a World Champion.