Producers Guild of America 2015 Predictions: Will 'Boyhood,' 'Birdman' or 'The Imitation Game' Win?
The Producers Guild of America is set to announce their winner for Best Motion Picture of the year.
The PGA award is a significant award because most of the winners go on to win the Academy Award for Best Picture.
Last year was the only time in the history of the organization that a tie occurred and "Gravity" and "12 Years a Slave" won the award. "12 Years a Slave" went on to win the Oscar while "Gravity" won seven Oscars including Best Director.
Other Oscar winners that have won both Best Picture and the PGA include "Argo," "The Artist," "The King's Speech," "The Hurt Locker," "Slumdog Millionaire" and "No Country For Old Men." The last time the PGA and Academy diverged was in 2006 when "Little Miss Sunshine" won the PGA and "The Departed" won the Oscar. The reason both organizations generally match up is because the PGA has a number of Oscar voters.
This year three of the PGA nominees are not nominated for Best Picture at the Academy Awards and will most likely not win on Saturday. These films include "Gone Girl," "Nightcrawler" and "Foxcatcher." "Gone Girl" only received one Oscar nomination as well as "Nightcrawler." Meanwhile "Foxcatcher" received five nominations at the Academy Awards including a Best Director nomination.
The other seven films are nominated at the Oscars. However, neither "American Sniper, "Whiplash," or "The Theory of Everything" are nominated for Best Director at the Academy Awards. Only once in the past seven years has a picture won the Oscar without a Best Director award. That year was 2012 when "Argo" went missing in the director category. However, that film swept the Guild awards and that helped it win the Oscar. "American Sniper," "Whiplash" and "The Theory of Everything" are strong candidates but they have not had strong precursor award runs or support to win the Producers Guild or the Oscar.
The last four contenders are the biggest this year. "The Grand Budapest Hotel" has been the surprise of the season, especially since it is the first film to be nominated for an Oscar that came out in March since 2000 when "Erin Brockovich" was nominated. The film won the Golden Globe for Best Comedy besting "Birdman" and has been nominated for all the Guild awards. If it wins the producers Guild on Saturday it will automatically become the front-runner.
However, it still has to beat "The Imitation Game." While it has not been strong among critics', it is important to recall 2010 when "The King's Speech" beat out "The Social Network" and the Oscar race changed. "The Imitation Game" has the support from the Weinstein Company and the box office for the film has been strong. It also has the support from the Guilds and it is nominated for eight Academy Awards.
However, the two contenders that look unbeatable are "Boyhood" and "Birdman." Both films have emerged throughout as the critics' darlings. "Birdman" has won numerous Best Picture prizes and is nominated for the most Oscars. However, it lost the Golden Globe and that hurt its momentum.
Meanwhile, "Boyhood" has been the runaway hit throughout awards season. Its scope and ambition and its critical reception have really generated the interest. However, its box office is not as strong as other films in this category and sometimes critics' favorites do not translate to Oscar voters. The film is also a summer Indie film that does not scream "Oscar" film. However, if the PGA decides to continue the trend of awarding "Boyhood," the film will likely win the PGA and then go on to win the Oscar.