Oscar 2015 Prediction: 'Birdman' Wins SAG Awards, But Is It The Front-Runner?
On Sunday Jan. 25, the SAG awards were presented, with Mexican director Alejandro González Iñárritu's "Birdman" winning Best Cast in a motion picture.
The SAG awards are an important precursor because the organization contains the most Academy Award voters. As a result, most of the winners correlate with the Oscars.
"Birdman's" win for Best Cast cements its position as the front-runner to win the Best Picture at the Oscars. The Best Cast award does not always correlate with the Best Picture award, but many Oscar winners go on to win SAG prizes before winning the Oscar. These include "Argo," "The King's Speech," "No Country For Old Men," "Slumdog Millionaire" and "Crash."
The SAG win is the second major guild win for "Birdman" in two days. The film has already won the Producers Guild of America, which also contains a number of Oscar voters.
"Birdman" has already beat out "Boyhood," which was its biggest competition after losing the Critics' Choice and the Golden Globes. However, "Birdman" still has two more Guilds that it must win in order to secure the Oscar. The film must first win the Directors Guild of America award and the Writers Guild award. If the film wins these four awards then it will definitely win the Oscar.
However, a loss at these guilds will cost it the Best Picture. In 2006, "Little Miss Sunshine" won three of the guilds but lost the Directors Guild award and ended up losing the Oscar.
Additionally, "Birdman" is not nominated of the Best Editing award, which is crucial in order for a film to win Best Picture. The past 10 Best Picture winners have all been nominated for Best Editing and this harms "Birdman's" chances.
The biggest surprise of the night came from Eddie Redmayne, who won for his performance "The Theory of Everything." Redmayne won the Best Actor award, beating out favorite Michael Keaton for "Birdman." Redmayne's victory comes after winning the Golden Globe. However, he lost the Critics' Choice and many other critics' circles. Most pundits had Keaton as the front-runner to win the SAG award for his performance in "Birdman," especially after having swept the precursors, winning the Golden Globe and starring in the front-runner film. With Redmayne having won the SAG award, expect him to repeat at the Oscars.
The SAG awards continued most of the same trends that have already been seen in previous awards ceremonies. After winning the Golden Globe, Critics' Choice and a number of critics' circles, Patricia Arquette took home the Best Supporting Actress for her film "Boyhood" and she continues to be the front-runner for the Oscar.
J.K. Simmons also took home the SAG award for his role in "Whiplash." The actor followed his Golden Globe, Critics' Choice wins and multiple critics' circle wins. He is also bound to win his first Academy Award on Oscar Sunday.
Julianne Moore continued to be the front-runner for Best Actress. She won the SAG for her work on "Still Alice." The win comes after her Golden Globe and Critics' Choice victories. Moore has never won an Oscar, even though she has been nominated five times, and this will most likely be her first win.