Oscars 2015 Predictions, Best Director: Why Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu Will Win the Oscar
The Best Director category has become one of the most unpredictable categories this year, as three directors could easily win the top prize.
The category is made up of two previous Director Nominees and three new to the category. None of the directors have ever won the award, so this will be the winner's first.
Whoever wins the category will join a line of international directors, which include Alfonso Cuaron ("Gravity,"), Ang Lee ("Life of Pi"), Michel Hazanavicius ("The Artist"), Tom Hooper ("the King's Speech") and Kathryn Bigelow ("The Hurt Locker").
Wes Anderson, "The Grand Budapest Hotel"
Considered one of the most important auteurs of modern cinema, Anderson received his first Oscar nomination in the directing category. The director has been acclaimed for his work on "Moonrise Kingdom," "Fantastic Mr. Fox" and "The Royal Tenenbaums." However, he has never received the recognition he has obtained for what most call his crowning achievement. For his work on "The Grand Budapest Hotel," he was nominated for the BAFTA, Critics' Choice, Golden Globe and Directors Guild of America. However, he has failed to win a single award for his film. Anderson's film came out in March, and the Academy generally does not award early releases, making Anderson a viable but long shot for the award.
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, "Birdman"
Inarritu has made what many consider his masterpiece thus far, and for this, he received his second directing nomination. He was previously nominated for "Babel" in 2006, but lost to Martin Scorsese for "The Departed." Throughout the season, Inarritu has been on a whirlwind, winning many awards but losing a lot of major ones just as the Critics' Choice, the Golden Globe and the BAFTA. However, he changed the game when he won the DGA award, which is considered the best indication of what the Academy will choose. Out of the 67 winners the DGA has chosen, only 7 have not won the Oscars. "Birdman" has been embraced by every single guild except the editors, and that is an indication of the admiration the industry has for the film. Expect Inarritu to walk home with the Oscar and become only the second Mexican to do so.
Richard Linklater, "Boyhood"
After an arousing response at Sundance, Linklater went on to win the Best Director award at the Berlin Film Festival and later was nominated for his first directing award at the Oscars. The director has been working in the industry for years and has made such classics as "Dazed and Confused," "Before Sunset," "Before Sunrise" and "Before Midnight." For "Boyhood," Linklater has received numerous awards and won nearly all the critics' circles. He also won the Golden Globe, BAFTA and Critics' Choice award for Best Director. However, he failed to win the DGA, and that hurt his chances of winning the Academy Award. While most pundits believe that the Academy will award Linklater's achievement in having put together a film over the past 12 years, the film has received a lot of backlash for its lack of a narrative. This will likely pull academy voters away and will give an edge to Inarritu, whose film is more Academy-friendly.
Bennett Miller, "Foxcatcher"
Miller was the biggest surprise in this category as he received his second nomination for Best Director. He was previously nominated for his 2005 Best Picture nominee, "Capote." Throughout the season, Miller had been a no-show as his film was considered too dark for Academy voters, and it did not resonate with critics because of its ambiguity. However, Miller still won the Best Director award at Cannes and still received rave reviews for the film. The nomination for "Foxcatcher" in this category is a big surprise since the film is not nominated for Best Picture. This was something that many pundits were confused about given the eight best pictures nominees. If history is a sign, the last five Best Director winners have all won for Best Picture nominees. As a result, Miller has no chance in this category.
Morten Tyldum, "The Imitation Game"
For his work on his first English language film, Tyldum received his first directing and Oscar nomination. The Norwegian director previously directed "Headhunters" and "Buddy" in Norway. Tyldum is somewhat of a surprise in this category, especially since he was not nominated at the BAFTA, Critics' Choice or Golden Globe. However, it was the DGA recognition that led him to his Oscar nomination. He is unlikely to win the award since the film has lost most awards. Tyldum's prize is the nomination itself.
Predictions
The DGA is the best indicator of how the Academy works and Inarritu has all the steam to win. The industry has embraced his film, and it is unlikely the Academy will split the director and picture categories for a third time. Linklater could surprise, but Inarritu is now the front-runner.