2016 Presidential Election: Hillary Clinton's Lead in Swing States Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania Drop Against GOP Candidates in New Poll
Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's lead against potential Republican Party opponents could be nearing an end, as new polling data showed narrow margins in three swing states.
Overall, Clinton's lead is down in hypothetical match-ups in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania. Within the three swing states, voters agreed Clinton is honest and trustworthy, yet she is still viewed as the preferred candidate.
The Quinnipiac University Poll surveyed Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania since no presidential candidate has won the election without winning two of these three states since 1960.
Florida:
In the Sunshine State, where potential Republican candidate Jeb Bush served as governor, showed Clinton losing against Bush. In the latest Quinnipiac University poll, Bush received 45 percent of the poll while Clinton accounted for 42 percent. Bush and Clinton have been in narrow hypothetical races based on Quinnipiac's February poll when Clinton led Bush with 44 percent and 43 percent, respectively.
Clinton did win a hypothetical election against Sen. Marco Rubio, R- Fla., but her lead decreased compared to February's figures. The latest poll has Clinton with 46 percent and 44 percent for Rubio. In February, Clinton's lead was slightly higher at 49 percent, while Rubio was lower at 39 percent.
Clinton's double-digit lead against Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky., shrunk with a margin spread of three percentage points. The March poll has Clinton with 46 percent to Paul's 43 percent. In comparison to February, Clinton won with 50 percent to Paul's 38 percent.
In a hypothetical match-up with confirmed Republican presidential candidate Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas, Clinton's numbers improved compared to Bush, Paul and Rubio, Against Cruz, Clinton won with 48 percent to 39 percent for the conservative senator.
Clinton's favorability rating dropped from 53 percent to 49 percent, while the unfavorable rating increased from 39 percent to 46 percent.
Ohio:
In Ohio, Clinton won against all Republican candidates. Against Bush, Clinton won with 47 percent to 38 percent. In comparison to February's Ohio polling data, Clinton's percentage rate did not change, but Bush improved by two percentage points.
Paul's percentage rate increased from February's 36 percent to 41 percent, but Clinton still led despite a decline from 48 percent to 46 percent. Clinton won against Rubio with 47 percent to 38 percent. Cruz also lost the hypothetical race against Clinton, 48 percent to 38 percent.
Clinton' favorability rating did not change, at 51 percent, but her unfavorable rating increased from February's 40 percent to 43 percent.
Pennsylvania:
Pennsylvania's hypothetical presidential race saw Paul as the only Republican to defeat Clinton. In February, Clinton led against Paul with 53 percent to 34 percent, but the March polling data showed Paul ahead by one percentage point -- 45 percent to 44 percent.
Clinton, however, topped all other Republican candidates, although her lead narrowed. Clinton's 15 percent lead against Bush dropped to a six-percentage point spread as she received 46 percent, and he attracted 40 percent. Clinton garnered 46 percent against Rubio, as he received 42 percent of the poll.
Clinton is also in a close battle against New Jersey Gov. Christie Christie. Although she did win the questionnaire against Christie, it was only by five percentage points (45 percent to 40 percent).
"The good news for Hillary Clinton is that the email controversy has not done huge violence to her presidential chances. But the matter is taking a toll on the former secretary of state's public image," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac Poll. "On the plus side, Secretary Clinton is considered a strong leader - a key characteristic for voters when picking a president, more so than her leading, but lesser-known, potential GOP opponents. But about half the voters in all three states question her honesty and trustworthiness."
The Quinnipiac survey was conducted between March 17 and March 28 with 1,087 Florida voters, 1,077 Ohio voters and 1,036 Pennsylvania voters.
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