Detroit Red Wings vs. Tampa Bay Lightning Predictions, Analysis, Live Stream: Which Team Moves on to Round 2 to Play Montreal Canadiens?
The NHL will have its second Game 7 of the Stanley Cup Playoffs Wednesday as the Tampa Bay Lightning and Detroit Red Wings face off in the pivotal game.
The other Game 7 was between the Washington Capitals and New York Islanders Tuesday, which Washington won 2-1.
This game between Tampa and Detroit features a number of unique and prominent storylines that could decide the outcome. Here is a look at these stories:
A Tale of Two Goalies...
Or more appropriately, Jekyl and Hyde. Peter Mrazek is the number one goalie for Detroit in this series and of that there can be no doubt. But he has not always inspired the confidence of a true number one in this series.
His .924 save percentage through six games is 12th among all goalies in these playoffs and 10th among goalies with four or more games played.
But this number has been buoyed by two shutouts and a miraculous 44-save performance in Game 1.
In those odd-numbered games, his save percentage is a sterling .979. In even numbered games, Mrazek has been nothing if not a doppleganger of his best self. He has conceded 11 goals in those three games and has a save percentage of .851. For some context, Corey Crawford, the goalie with the worst save percentage in these playoffs, has sported a .850 save percentage through three games; he only won one of those contests.
What About the Bishop?
Before we pose all the questions toward Mrazek, we should also look at the fact that Detroit has managed to get this far because the guy defending Tampa's net has pulled off his own Jekyl and Hyde act. And he has been far less effective than expected.
Ben Bishop posted an average .916 save percentage throughout the regular scene but has turned into a pumpkin throughout the playoffs with a .904 save percentage, good for 19th of 25 goalies. And yet it is not fair to paint him as an inept keeper. He has posted a .900 save percentage or better in four of six games (better than Mrazek) and had a .917 or better save percentage on three different occasions; when he did, his team won.
He has had two sub-.900 games, including a .786 save percentage in Game 1 when he allowed three goals on 14 shots, but has been rather steady for the most part. Soft goals have come at a premium from him and Tampa Bay will hope for more composure in the pivotal game.
Tyler Johnson and Steven Stamkos
In the regular season, Tyler Johnson and Steven Stamkos were tied for the team lead in points with 72 each. Stamkos scored 43 goals while Johnson put up 43 assists.
Fast forward to the postseason and only one of the two is producing. And you would be surprised to find out that the Tampa Bay captain is the one with the short end right now.
Stamkos, the terrific scorer, has yet to find the back of the net in this series despite having three assists. Meanwhile, Johnson has six goals and one assist to lead the team in points and goals.
But the bigger issue here is that aside from Johnson, only Alex KIllorn has more than one goal in this series. And more problematic? Johnson is shooting at an unsustainable 31.6 percent. The moment he goes cold (and he will because no one is going to score on 31 percent of the shots he takes for the full duration of the playoffs), someone will need to step up. Stamkos should be that man, but he has failed. The team needs him now.
The Numbers Game
According to War on Ice, Tampa Bay is winning the possession battle with 54.1 percent of shot attempts. The team is also getting more offensive zone starts and according to the statistic known as PDO, the team is getting a better combined save percentage and shooting percentage. This statistic indicates that eventually all teams regress to the mean of 100, which means that ultimately Tampa Bay will drop in one area (likely shooting percentage) while the Rd Wings will rise from its putrid 6.6 percent success on shots.
More problematic for the Lightning is that Detroit is winning the special teams battle with a terrific 19.2 success rate on the power play; the Lightning, meanwhile, have only converted on 7.7 percent of their power plays.
Predictions
Tampa Bay overcomes Mrazek and Stamkos scores a big goal in a 3-1 win.
Schedule, How to Watch
The game starts at 7:30 p.m. EDT and can be viewed on NBCSN Live Extra for cable subscribers. Those who own NHL's GameCenter subscription can also watch the game.