Real Madrid vs. Juventus Preview, Predictions, Analysis: Iker Casillas vs. Gianluigi Buffon- Which Side Has Better Goalie and Defensemen?
Real Madrid vs. Juventus.
A match-up with history and one that will only add to it this season with both sides looking for a chance at the big prize.
While many believe this is a slam dunk for defending Champion Real Madrid, the reality is that Juventus is a much better team than it is given credit for.
Goaltending and defense will play a huge factor in this match-up as both sides have a plethora of dangerous attackers. But which side is more compact on the backend?
Real Madrid - Iker Casillas, Pepe, Dani Carvajal, Marcelo, Sergio Ramos, Raphael Varane
This is the batch of players that Carlo Ancelotti will utilize in this match-up. The real question of course is whether Pepe sits or Varane warms the bench. Varane is the more dependable defender, but Pepe is a physical presence that can slow down and intimidate opposing attackers.
The flanks will be of great concern as both Marcelo and Dani Carvajal are tremendous attackers but can find themselves getting caught high up the pitch and made to suffer on the counterattack. Juventus likes to play a 3-5-2, which leaves the defenders with some major issues to deal with defensively. With a backline of four, the two can afford to move up and attack, but with more midfielders, the threats on the counter increase dramatically, forcing Carvajal and Marcelo to be more cautious with runs up the pitch.
Of course, of greater concern for Madrid will be Iker Casillas. The goalie has gone hot and cold all season long and there is certainly no reason to know that he will be fully ready for what this physical match-up might bring. Having Fernando Llorente to deal with is an issue as the large Spaniard can outmuscle other players in front of the net, creating more issues for the goalkeeper.
Juventus - Gianluigi Buffon, Martin Caceres, Leo Bonucci, Giorgio Chiellini
The Italian side is likely to play 3-5-2 in this match-up to clog Real Madrid's midfield from playing its possession game. And the three men to sit back and defend are likely Bonucci, Chiellini and Caceres. They have had sterling years for Juventus and the group has been impenetrable in both domestic and European competition. The team has conceded 17 goals against in Italy through 32 games and has only allowed five goals in Europe; the team has only conceded one goal in the knockout rounds.
For Buffon, the match-up will allow him to face his longtime rival Iker Casillas. Both keepers have competed on numerous stages and this might be the twilight of their respective careers for their respective clubs. Buffon is arguably in better form than his Spanish counterpart despite being two years shy of 40.
By the Numbers
Real Madrid has allowed six goals in the Champions League, but four of those came in a 4-3 loss against Schalke. Moreover, the team has not conceded a goal in its last two Champions League games against Atletico Madrid.
Juventus has conceded fewer shots per game than Real Madrid in this competition (10-11.1). That said, the Italian squad is less likely to commit tackles than Los Blancos (20-17.3 per game) and also commits fewer interceptions per game (16.3-14.3). Juventus also commits more fouls per game than Real Madrid, which is concerning considering that the team makes fewer tackles.
From its top defenders, Juventus has a combined six goals and five assists; Madrid has 12 assists and five goals from its top defenders.
Advantage?
Juventus has the edge in goal without any doubt. Casillas remains a wild card that could tip the scales in either direction.
As for the defenders, Madrid's squad is better at disrupting play of the opposition and provides more offensively overall. That said, Juventus is marginally better at shot prevention, which is key to this match-up when the goaltenders come into play.
Overall, this is even, but goaltending skews it slightly toward Juventus.