California Senate Race 2016: Californians Still Undecided, Loretta Sanchez Not Voters' 1st Choice
While Californians have until June 2016 to select their U.S. Senate Democratic nominee, Attorney General Kamala Harris appeared to have a comfortable lead against Rep. Loretta Sanchez, D-Calif.
Polling data from The Field Poll found Harris has a lead against her official and potential Senate candidates; however, most voters are not paying attention to the primary.
"California voters appear not to be giving much attention to next year's election to fill the U.S. Senate seat now held by Democrat Barbara Boxer. When likely voters in next year's June open primary are asked who they would support from a list of announced or potential candidates, a majority does not offer a preference," wrote The Field Poll's Mark DiCamillo and Mervin Field.
The majority that is undecided equated to 58 percent.
When Californian voters were asked for their first choice, 19 percent favored Harris. Sanchez ranked second place with 8 percent, narrowly ahead of State Assemblyman Rocky Chavez, who received 6 percent. Former state Republican Party Chairman Tom Del Beccaro placed fourth with 5 percent as Rep. Xavier Becerra, D-Calif., rounded up the top five with 3 percent.
Sanchez's odds improved if voters had a second choice. After combining the figures for first and second choices, Sanchez remained at second place but with 14 percent, an improved margin spread as Harris accounted for 22 percent. Chavez maintained third place.
"Partisan loyalties are a big factor in the initial preferences of likely voters in the open primary. For example, Harris is the first or second choice of four in ten likely Democratic voters in the primary (40 percent), but only receives 7 percent of the first or second choice votes of likely Republicans," added DiCamillo and Field.
The Field Poll added, "Similarly, fellow Democrat, Sanchez obtains 25 percent first or second choice votes but only 4 percent support from Republicans."
Almost half of the survey respondents, specifically 47 percent, identified themselves as "strongly liberal" and preferred Harris. The California attorney general also received support from "strong conservatives," although in single digits with 4 percent.
Harris and Sanchez may need to work on specific Californian regions. The Field Poll found Harris did best among likely voters in the San Francisco Bay Area. Sanchez's strongest support came from Southern California voters.
Race could play a role in next June's open primary.
DiCamillo and Field noted, "There are also differences in preferences relating to the race or ethnicity of the voter. Harris is the first or second choice of 51 percent of African-Americans, and also leads her nearest potential challengers among white non-Hispanics nearly two to one."
Sanchez held a comfortable lead among Latino-likely voters. She received 20 percent, ahead of Harris' 13 percent. Becerra placed third with 11 percent, but Republican Chavez was close behind with 10 percent.
Asian-American voters were "evenly divided" between Harris and Sanchez.
The election will determine who will succeed the retiring Democratic incumbent Barbara Boxer. As The Field Poll noted, the U.S. Senate seat primary is an "open primary, which means all candidates regardless of political party affiliation can be listed on the same primary election ballot, and it is open to all registered voters. The top two candidates in June's primary will be the only candidates for the November 2016 general election.
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