Copa America 2015 Predictions, Analysis: Why Uruguay Can Repeat As Champions Without Luis Suarez
Seven Copa America champions have managed the feat of repeating their title. Uruguay managed to accomplish the feat twice in its history, taking home the 1916 title and the ensuing 1917 victory. The team then accomplished the feat in 1923 and 1924 but has not managed to do the same since.
The 2015 edition of Uruguay enters in a rather unique situation with a chance to repeat if certain situations go their way. But is the team equipped for a deep run, especially after its poor showing at the 2014 World Cup?
History
Not only was Uruguay a repeat champion on the aforementioned occasions, but the Celeste are the top team in this tournament with victories in 15 different tournaments, more than any other nation. The team's wins have come in 1916, 1917, 1920, 1923, 1923, 1926, 1935, 1942, 1956, 1959, 1967, 1983, 1987, 1995 and 2011. On eight of those occasions, the team was also the host nation.
Uruguay has also managed to be a runner-up on six other occasions and also managed third place finishes nine times.
It is safe to say the Uruguay has been a competitive team in this tournament.
Yet the team, which is the reigning champion, is not seen as a favorite for a deep run. In 2011, Luis Suarez was named MVP of the tournament with four strikes, including one in the final against Paraguay that wound up being the winning goal. The team also had Diego Forlan in peak form and most of the team that finished fourth in the 2010 World Cup.
This time around things get a bit more dicey with Forlan retired from international competition and Suarez likely out of the tournament altogether. Or is he?
Key Player
If Luis Suarez plays, then he is undoubtedly the man behind any Uruguayan hope. He is currently suspended by FIFA from playing because of his biting incident during the World Cup against Giorgio Chiellini.
However, Suarez has recently appealed the suspension, taking advantage of FIFA's turmoil. It is unlikely he sees any reversal in the decision, leaving his nation without the top goal scorer in its history.
If Suarez is not able to play (and it is highly likely), then Edinson Cavani will be looked on as the main man. Cavani has 25 goals in an Uruguayan shift and is coming off a solid 30-goal year for Paris Saint-Germain. He should be entering his peak years at this point in time but has never proven an ability to shoulder the offensive load for his nation alone. This will be his big test. If he can overcome it, then his nation might be looking at a good shot at a deep run.
Why Uruguay Can Repeat
Most of this team, albeit a younger version, won the tournament already. It also helps that aside from Argentina, Uruguay faces minimal competition in Group B; Paraguay is one of the worst teams around and Jamaica is far from a top contender.
The path could get more complicated for the team if it finishes second in the group with Colombia or Brazil staring it in the face. But Uruguay has a chance to stun Argentina and a win in that game would mean a matchup with a third place team from Group A or C -- that would likely be one of Ecuador or Venezuelan, both beatable for Uruguay. Once the team hits the semifinal, anything is possible, especially with Cavani hitting his stride.
Few remember that Uruguay also has a solid slate of defenders that will make it tough for opposition to put up the goals.
Predictions: The team finishes second in Group B but gets bounced in the first knockout round.