World Cup Qualifiers 2018: Could Colombia Miss Out on 2018 World Cup After Disastrous Copa America Display?
Colombia may have made it to the Copa America quarterfinals, but few would consider the effort a success. If anything, Colombia's campaign, which commenced with dreams of a championship run, ended in utter ignominy.
That embarrassment was highlighted by one statistic -- one goal.
Colombia, which scored a whopping 12 goals in give World Cup games last summer, finished with just one strike from four matches. Moreover, the goal came from a set piece, and the man to put the ball in the net was a defender.
What makes this performance more concerning is that Colombia's turnaround from top contender to a mediocre side came about in one year. The team has just a few months to figure itself out because the World Cup qualifiers commence this fall.
More importantly, Colombia, which finished among the top four sides in the CONMEBOL qualifiers, will have a lot more competition to deal with than it did in 2014.
In 2014, the CONMEBOL was comprised of nine teams with host nation Brazil not needing to compete. Four of the nine sides were granted automatic passage to Brazil while the fifth placed team getting to compete with an Asian side in the playoff. The odds were in South America's favor.
Moreover, three of those sides were in steep decline -- Peru and Bolivia remained in limbo while former super power Paraguay was in full rebuild mode.
Things will change drastically in the 2018 qualifiers with the pool now containing the nine sides of 2014 and Brazil.
As evidenced by the 2015 Copa America, Peru and Paraguay are no longer rebuilding but ready to compete with the best South America has to offer. No one else can be seen as a minnow anymore.
Argentina will remain strong, even if Lionel Messi, Sergio Aguero, Javier Mascherano and Angel di Maria are past their respective primes. Brazil, while lacking in quality, will feature the best years of Neymar's career, and there is no doubt that if anyone can carry his nation to victory on his own, it will be Neymar.
Chile is arguably the best team in South America while Venezuela showed a lot of poise in the Copa America and will be a tough side to shut down. Ecuador had a tough tournament but has shown few signs of regression.
Uruguay was woeful in the Copa America, but it lacked Luis Suarez who is one of the best players in the world and makes a major difference.
That leaves Colombia in a precarious situation, especially with its current level of play. Many will point to the lack of ball movement from the back to the front, and that could certainly be a concern. Carlos Sanchez was missing against Argentina, thus leaving the team with a gaping hole in the heart of its midfield; the ability to win back possession was lost against an Argentina side that preyed on possession soccer.
Edwin Valencia is a decent defensive midfielder, but Abel Aguilar and Fredy Guarin were the top choices in Brazil. Both are important in the link up play for Colombia.
That said, there should be concerns over the top of the line where James Rodriguez and Juan Cuadrado failed to make much of an impact. There are certainly theories concerning their respective performances that will need to be further evaluated when the qualifiers resume.
Rodriguez put up a lot of mileage for Real Madrid and was also coming off a recent injury. He might simply have been out of gas for this tournament. As for Cuadrado, the Colombia was spending more time on the bench since making his January move to Chelsea. His decision making throughout the tournament was rather sporadic, his brilliance faltering more and more with each passing game. That likely had to do with his adjustment to game pressure, something he had seldom experienced with Chelsea.
The lack of bench depth proved to be a major problem for Colombia, often putting extra pressure on big players to perform.
The Brazil game aside, Colombia rarely looked like the free-flowing attacking side of the 2014 World Cup, the ball often getting caught in players' feet on the counter and the passing out of the back often resulting into dangerous turn overs.
It might be a matter of bad luck and many factors going against Colombia, but Pekerman has a lot of work to do if this team is going to make it back to Russia for the 2018 World Cup. Otherwise it might be another long wait for Colombians to see their nation compete for soccer's top prize.