Argentina vs. Chile Copa America Final 2015 Predictions: Four Reasons Why Argentina Will Win
The Copa America Final will take place on Saturday with Chile and Argentina comprising the dream final.
What makes this final so exciting is the pressure both sides face. Chile is the host nation while Argentina will see if last year's loss at the World Cup Final will prove a rallying point to overcome the choking label often associated with this team.
In many ways Argentina is arguably the favorite, entering the final with more veteran experience and the best player on the planet. Here are a few reasons why Argentina will likely come away with the win.
Chile's Style Favors Argentina
For most of this tournament, Argentina looked across the pitch and saw disciplined teams "parking the bus" in front of their possession game.
Spaces were limited, limiting Argentina's attacking prowess. Because of this tightening of defenses, Argetnina's breakthroughs often met with poor luck and the team was stifled at every turn.
The tide slowly turned near the end of the Jamaica game as the team started to find more space. Against Colombia, brilliant goaltending and poor luck left Argentina off the scoresheet, but the breakthrough seemed imminent.
Argentina just needed someone to give them more space.
Paraguay did just that and suffered for it. The Paraguayans, more disciplined defensively in the opening match against Argentina, looked a bit overconfident in attack against Argentina, leaving space in the midfield and facilitating a counter attack game for Gerardo Martino's side. Three of the goals in the 6-1 rout resulted from counters.
How does this apply to the Chile game?
Chile does not play defense; Chile attacks. The host nation leads all teams in possession at this tournament, seconded only by Argentina.
The problem is that Chile is the prototypical team that possesses the ball not only to attack, but to cover its holes on defense.
Against Peru, the team showed holes in its approach when the visitors went "mano a mano" with Chile, trading blows on the counter in a high octane game. Peru hit a post that would have given it a lead, but showed some cracks in Chile's defensive foundations.
As Argentina proved against Paraguay, giving the team that kind of up tempo approach will cost the opposition big time.
The problem for Chile is that sitting back and parking the bus is a poor option as the team is ill-equipped to handle crosses into the box (they are the smaller team in the final) and not at ease when being attacked directly.
Losers Ready to Turn into Winners
For years, Argentina has been viewed as a choking nation. The team has not lifted a major trophy since the 1990s and this current generation, which many view as the nation's finest, has produced nothing of note. Last summer the team had a chance to win the World Cup, but buckled at the last hurdle against a solid German side.
They often say that you need to learn how to lose before you learn how to win; there is no greater learning experience than being so close and failing to close the deal.
Argentina knows the pressure that is involved in playing a final. Whereas their emotions likely got the best of them in Brazil, the team is more seasoned and better able to handle the pressure it will face against the host nation.
This generation of Chileans on the other hand lack any sort of finals experience, thus leaving them at a major disadvantage against Argentina.
This is not the 2014 Messi; it's the 2015 version
A year ago, Lionel Messi suffered with injuries throughout his season with Barcelona and looked like a man running on fumes by the time the World Cup came around.
It seemed that as the tournament progressed, Messi was running on less and less. He started the tournament with four goals in the group stage, including a last minute screamer against Iran, before becoming a non-entity in the final two games of the Argentina's run.
The inverse has happened in Chile. He has only scored one goal, but Messi's growing participation in Argentina's attack has made the team grow ever more dangerous. Against Colombia he was dribbling through the heart of the midfield, forcing defenders into taking home to stop him.
He nearly scored in that game and looked ready for a break out.
He did not score in the semifinal against Paraguay but he was involved in every single one of the six goals his team scored in some capacity; on three of them he had an assist.
Vintage Messi was on display throughout, from the pinpoint cross that found Marco Rojo on the opener to the beautiful through ball to Javier Pastore on the second to the exquisite dribbling past three defenders to help set up the fourth tally. He even got himself an assist from the floor on the final tally of the game. This was Messi's night and easily one of his best games of 2015.
History Favors Argentina
Chile has hosted the tournament six times prior to 2015. Guess how many of those Argentina has won? Four straight. Moreover, Argentina overcame Chile in the final in 1955.
In its entire history, Argentina has a record of 57 wins, 21 draws and six losses against Chile. Moreover, Chile has only beaten Argentina once since 1973; that win came in 2008 during a World Cup qualifier in Chile. The final score was 1-0.
If that is not prescient, then what is?