Robert Lewandowski 5 Goals: A Look at Why Bayern Munich Striker Is Elite
Robert Lewandowski made tremendous headlines earlier this week when he scored a whopping five goals in nine minutes to seal a 5-1 win for Bayern Munich against Wolfsburg. It was undeniably the best performance of the year with the Pole matching the five-goal feat of Cristiano Ronaldo from a few weeks earlier.
In that game, the reigning Ballon d'Or winner scored a hat trick in 20 minutes and then finished off his five-goal night with two more in the second half. It was a legendary effort for Ronaldo, but hardly as impressive as Lewandowski's speedy five tallies.
Lewandowski immediately got plaudits for being every bit as good as Ronaldo, and his rival Lionel Messi, who has scored only one more goal over nine games than Lewandowski, managed in nine minutes.
How true can that be?
On the surface, the Pole does not belong in the same category as the other two superstars. For all of his talent, he is not scoring 50 goals a year with relative ease. He peaked at 24 in 2012-13 for Borussia Dortmund, a year when he put away four goals in a game against Real Madrid in the Champions League semifinal. Yet, if he continued his current pace of eight goals in five games, he would finish with 60.
That is never going to happen unfortunately for Lewandowski, and here is why: He has taken an average of 5.6 shots per game this season, more than ever before (his career average since 2010-11 is 3.3). He is converting 28 percent of his chances, despite having a career conversion rate of 17 percent. If he continues his current barrage of shots (which again is over two more per game than his career average) and moves back toward his career conversion rate, then 36 goals are a very realistic option; on their current paces in shots per game and career average conversion rate Ronaldo and Messi are primed for 39 goals.
That would certainly put Lewandowski on the same pace. Now assuming that his shots per game dips, and it likely will, and he averages closer to four shots per game and scores at his regular rate, then he should get around 22 more goals for a total of 30. That would certainly put him in elite company.
The big takeaway here is that Lewandowski is every bit as lethal as Messi and Ronaldo. In fact, he converts his chances more often than Ronaldo does (17 percent to 15 percent). He simply takes fewer shots per game. If he somehow does get more shots at goal per game, then there could be serious competition from the Polish striker, who is actually younger than both superstars.