Messi vs. Neymar 2015-16: Has The Brazilian Surpassed His Argentine Teammate?
Lionel Messi returned to the Barcelona lineup full time on Tuesday in the club's 61 win over Roma in the Champions League. He scored two goals, made of assists and was back his seeming best.
One player who had an off-night was superstar Neymar, who essentially carried the load for the club in his teammate's absence. But on this night, Neymar missed a penalty and did not get on the scoresheet. Yet Neymar's presence on the pitch is essential and he helped set up the opener with a fantastic pass and was a nightmare for Roma's defense all night long.
Neymar's rise to prominence has had him eclipse Cristiano Ronaldo as the world's second best player, but there might now be an opportunity to ask the big question: How close is Neymar to passing Messi as the best in the world?
It seems inevitable at this point in time. At 24, Neymar is entering his prime years while his 28-year-old teammate is set to exit them very soon.
So how far off is Neymar?
The goal scoring stats bode well for the Brazilian. He has 12 goals in 11 Spanish League tilts to go along with four assists. Assuming he plays every game this year, he is on pace for 40 goals in the Spanish League. A year ago, Messi scored 43 in La Liga and has eclipsed the total in the last four years. Neymar's assist total sets him on pace for 13, which is around Messi's average of 15 assists over the last three years in the Spanish League.
However there is something to be said about more advanced statistics. Messi is scoring his goals, averaging close to five shots per game on a consistent basis. Neymar has seen an increase in the amount of shots he has taken this season (he averaged 2.9 per game in La Liga last season and is up to 4.5 per game this year), and yet he has been more effective at putting the ball in the net than Messi. Neymar is currently scoring at a 24 percent conversion rate in La Liga, a number that is on par with Messi's best goalscoring turn out in 2011-12, when he scored 50 goals on 24 percent of his shots. Messi's career average since 2009-10 has been around a 20 percent conversion rate, while Neymar's has been close to a 19 percent conversion rate. If Neymar's new conversion rate this season continues, then he could very well start scoring goals at an even higher rate than his teammate.
When we start looking at key passes per game, then things really get interesting. Messi has averaged 2.2 key passes per game for his career since 2009-10. He has never eclipsed three key passes per game in the regular season to date, yet his numbers usually rank him among the best in the world in the statistic. This season, Neymar has averaged a whopping 3.9 key passes per game in La Liga, a huge increase from the 1.6 from a year ago and huge boost from his career average of two per game. Whether or not this is sustainable remains a huge question, but there is no doubt that in Messi's absence, Neymar took the playmaking reigns over in a big way, seeing his average passing numbers increase to 53.2 passes per game. Those are not quite Messi numbers in terms of taking the burden of play, but they are a big increase over the 46.7 passes per game from last season.
Neymar is also averaging more crosses per game than ever before: A year ago he averaged 0.1 crosses per game, and this year that number is at 1.5 per game. Messi has a career average of 0.4 crosses per game. Styles of play make up for this difference, but Neymar's increase can only express just how crucial he has become to Barcelona's attack.
Neymar is still nowhere near Messi's level in terms of dribbling, with the Argentina still putting up 5.6 dribbles per game while Neymar has around 4.2 per game.
Neymar has also been more involved defensively than Messi, making him a better-rounded player at this point in time. He is ever so close to topping his teammate offensively, and if he continues his current level of play and production, he should make that transition by the end of this year or even next.