Ballon d'Or 2016: Why Bayern Munich's Thomas Muller Was a Major Snub
The Ballon d'Or was announced on Monday, ending all speculation about the finalists. The result was rather predictable with Neymar and Lionel Messi joining current holder Cristiano Ronaldo in the top three. While many will point to Luis Suarez as a huge snub, there is another player who had put himself in the conversation in recent weeks and was promptly ignored.
His name is Thomas Muller.
The German is no new star. He is the fastest player to reach 50 Champions League victories and is also the quickest to score 10 goals at the World Cup. At his current pace, Muller is likely to destroy the record of fellow countryman Miroslav Klose by the time the next World Cup draws to a close in 2018.
That said, Muller's current performance at Bayern Munich in 2015-16 is nothing short of astounding. Let's look at the numbers.
In 14 Bundesliga tilts, he already has 13 goals and two assists; 13 goals is his career-high in the competition and he has managed the feat on four prior occasions. But he never got to 13 at such pace and he is currently on track to hit a whopping 35 goals in the league this year. For some context, only seven players in the history of the Bundesliga have hit 30 goals or more in a season; no one has done it since 1976-77. Of course many will argue that the German is getting a lot of luck and that percentages will eventually slow his current pace down significantly. They would be right. Muller has a career average conversion rate of 19 percent; he is currently scoring on 30 percent of his shots. Moreover, he is shooting 3.1 shots per game despite having a career average of 2.1.
If regression hit the rest of the way, Muller would still wind up with around nine more goals, bringing his total to 22, no small feat regardless.
However, while the percentages might slow down, there is no indication that Muller will shoot less at this juncture as the offense is structured in a way that facilitates his shooting. So if he continued his high shooting rate and regressed to his career average in conversion rate, he would put up 14 more goals, bringing his total to 27.
What is key to note is that over the last few years, Muller's shots per game have steadily increased. In 2011-12, he had 1.9 shots per game. In 2012-13 he averaged 2.4 per game before seeing that number drop slightly to 2.3 a year later. In 2014-15 he hit 2.6 shots per game and now he has eclipsed three.
Other numbers of note include an average of 2.1 key passes per game, the highest average Muller has ever put up in the Bundesliga. He also has 1.6 dribbles per game, his best total since the 2010-11 season and the 2014 World Cup.
If there is any reason for concern it is that Muller's assist numbers are down by a significant number. He is currently on pace to hit only five assists in 2015-16, the lowest number he would ever have in the Bundesliga in his career to date. Of course, this would be offset by the huge increase in goals; this is likely the reason for this drop in this particular statistic.
His work at the end of the year is not enough to merit a nomination, but throw in his Bundesliga trophy earlier this year in addition to the five goals for his country in the Euro 2016 qualifiers and there was certainly enough of an argument to make for Muller.
All statistics from WhoScored.com.