Super Tuesday March 15 Polls, Preview: What to Know About the 'Winner Take All' States
March 15 is another round of presidential primaries for the Democratic and Republican Parties, and it could determine each party's nominee and the fate of Marco Rubio's political career.
Florida
For the Republican presidential candidates, Florida is one of two "winner take all" states on Tuesday night. The winner of the Florida Republican primary will win all 99 available delegates. For Rubio, the junior senator for Florida, the Sunshine State is a must-win state in keep his presidential campaign alive. Based on RealClearPolitics' estimates, Rubio has 163 delegates, currently third place behind Donald Trump's 460 delegates and Ted Cruz's 370 delegates. Rubio is ahead of Ohio Gov. John Kasich, who has 63 delegates.
Based on polling data, Rubio is expected to lose in his home state to Trump. According to Quinnipiac University's latest poll, Trump leads Rubio by double digits, specifically 46 percent to 22 percent, while Cruz and Kasich finish the top four.
For the Democratic presidential candidates, not taking into account the superdelegates -- or "unpledged" delegates, 214 delegates are at stake in the Sunshine State. Unlike the GOP race, Florida is not a "winner take all" state. The winner of Florida's Democratic Party presidential primary will share the available delegates.
Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has been leading polls conducted within the state. Based on Quinnipiac University poll, she leads rival Bernie Sanders by 26-percentage points (60 percent to 34 percent) and in the CBS News and YouGov survey by 28 percent (62 percent to 34 percent).
Clinton would need a substantial win to build on her delegate-count lead. Without superdelegates, according to RealClearPolitics, Clinton has 748 delegates and 542 delegates for Sanders. With superdelegates, Clinton's lead increases to 1,231 to Sanders' 576.
According to the National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials (NALEO) Educational Fund, more than two million Latinos are registered to vote in Florida.
Ohio
Ohio is another battleground state for Republicans and Democrats. First with the Democrats, 143 delegates are available and the result may not be as obvious compared to Florida.
Surveying 543 likely Democratic voters, Clinton leads by just five-percentage points (51 percent to 46 percent) in Quinnipiac University's poll. According Monmouth University, polling 302 likely voters between March 11 and March 13, her lead increases by 14 percent. She received 54 percent to Sanders' 40 percent.
In the GOP, Ohio is the other "winner take all" race, and Kasich is hoping to secure the win. Kasich is in fourth place on the overall delegate count, but polling data has shown he has an opportunity to win all 66 delegates. In the same Monmouth poll, Kasich leads the Republican pack by five percent. He received enough support to defeat Trump with 40 percent to 35 percent. Cruz placed third with 15 percent, while Rubio trailed at 5 percent. With Quinnipiac, however, Trump manages to tie Kasich at 38 percent. Cruz and Rubio maintained their respective third and fourth place positions.
Ohio reportedly has 199,000 Latino eligible voters.
North Carolina
North Carolina is not a "winner take all" state, but it's home to the third-largest delegate count for Republicans. With 72 delegates available, Trump is expected to have another win based on polls showing him with double-digit leads. Public Policy Polling (PPP) found 749 likely Republican voters favoring Trump with 44 percent, ahead of Cruz's 33 percent. Kasich placed third with 11 percent and Rubio at 7 percent.
"If John Kasich and Marco Rubio really combine for 20% of the vote in North Carolina on Tuesday Donald Trump will almost definitely win the state," said PPP President Dean Debnam. "The only way he's likely to be stopped is if supporters of the also rans shift their support to Ted Cruz."
While Clinton might encounter trouble in Ohio, she could see another win in North Carolina. With 107 delegates at stake, Clinton received a 19-percent lead over Sanders in the PPP survey. Polling 747 likely voters, she garnered 56 percent and Sanders attracted 37 percent.
According to the North Carolina State Board of Elections, 135,000 Latinos are registered to vote in North Carolina, representing 2.1 percent of the overall registered electorate.
Also at Play
Illinois and Missouri will also have primaries on Tuesday. On the Republican field, Illinois offers 69 delegates and Missouri has 52 delegates, both proportional states. For the Democrats, 156 delegates are available in Illinois and 71 delegates in Missouri.
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For the latest updates, follow Latin Post's Michael Oleaga on Twitter: @EditorMikeO or contact via email: m.oleaga@latinpost.com.
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