NHL Draft 2014: Predicting the Top Five Picks
The NHL draft lottery took place on Tuesday night and the Florida Panthers emerged with the first overall pick. The Buffalo Sabres, who had the worst record in the NHL this season, wound up picking second while the Edmonton Oilers, Calgary Flames and NY Islanders rounded out the top five. So who will these teams pick?
The current draft has three players that are considered at the top of the draft class: Aaron Ekblad, Sam Reinhart and Sam Bennett. After those three, there are two other prospects that are considered among the top of the class: German Leon Draisaitl and Michael Dal Colle. Other top prospects include William Nylander, Nikolaj Ehlers, Jake Virtanen and Kasperi Kapanen.
So how will the top five shake out?
The Panthers are unlikely to let go of this pick. The team has drafted a plethora of forwards in the past few drafts, including Jonathan Huberdeau and Aleksandr Barkov. The team's defense was the second-worst in the league and it is likely that they will look to add a top defender with the first pick. Expect Ekblad to go to Florida.
The Buffalo Sabres actually have some solid defenders in their system and it was probably a sure bet that they would go after a forward. The team's offense was the worst by a mile at only 157 goals scored; the Panthers were the second worst offensive team with 196 goals scored. The question here is whether they go for Reinhart or Bennett. Reinhart had 105 points this season in the WHL including 36 goals; he scored 35 goals a year earlier, indicating that his strength is passing and not scoring. Bennett finished with 36 goals and 91 points this season in the OHL while Draisaitl had 38 goals and 105 points playing in the WHL. Expect Buffalo to go for Reinhart as he is seen as the best all-around player of the three.
With Ekblad off the board, the Oilers have no choice but to go for a forward. They have top end talent with the likes of Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Jordan Eberle and Taylor Hall. They could use this pick and Nail Yakupov to fill a need on defense or go for a more experienced elite forward. If they keep the pick, expect them to go for Draisaitl.
If Bennett drops to the fourth spot, then there is no doubt that the Calgary Flames will take him. The team currently lacks a bonafide number one center and Bennett would certainly fill that need. If Bennett is not available, then expect the team to go for either Draisaitl or Reinhart; do not expect any of these top three centers to fall to the fifth spot.
This leaves the NY Islanders in an interesting situation. The team can opt to give the pick to the Sabres and retain next year's pick in the first round. But by doing so, the team would be sending the message to its fanbase that it is unsure about making the playoffs next season. The Islanders have a few options here. The team is strong down the middle with the likes of John Tavares, Ryan Strome, Frans Nielsen and Brock Nelson; the latter three are arguably second-line centers moving forward giving the Islanders tremendous depth at the center position. The team would likely go for a top winger but the Islanders could also look to trade the pick down to fill the goaltender position, while also looking to recoup a first-round pick for next season.
The 2015 draft is said to be very deep and any pick in the first round should yield a solid player regardless of the placement. Islanders' general manager Garth Snow moved down back in 2008 and these moves yielded the likes of Josh Bailey, Travis Hamonic and even what eventually became a chance to pick Calvin De Haan in the 2009 draft. If Snow does decide to pick then it will be a battle between Dal Colle, Ehlers and Virtanen. Ehlers finished his 2013-14 QMJHL with 49 goals and 104 points; he is a left winger and could be the future wingman for Tavares. Virtanen had 45 goals in WHL, but he is a right winger. Finally, Dal Colle, a left winger/center, had 39 goals in the OHL this past season. At 6'2'', Dal Colle has size and would be the likely pick here for the Islanders.
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