New York Primary Day Has Democrats, Republicans Fight for Delegates, Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton Near Nominations for 2016 Elections
Two months from now, when remaining presidential candidates prepare for the election season's final primaries, they will look back and realize Tuesday's New York primary set the tone.
Donald Trump is a lock for most Republican delegates, considering Ted Cruz and John Kasich are far behind in most national polls. Nearly every April poll has the real estate magnate with double-digit leads, in some cases surpassing 30 percentage points.
But public opinion for the real estate magnate wanes, as it has for Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton over the last month - the former New York senator continuously defends her trustworthiness on the campaign trail, though it didn't affected her standing with left-leaning voters until recently. Clinton's read to victory isn't lucid, and there is concern among surrogates that Bernie Sanders will take an eighth straight contest, dating back to March 22 Idaho caucuses.
Clinton and Trump may conducted victory speeches shortly after polling places close, but how they win and how delegates are distributed will resonate across state lines, into delegate-laden states of California, Pennsylvania, and New Jersey awaiting their primary Election Day.
Clinton, Sanders Hit the Five Boroughs
Democratic delegates are distributed proportionally across each of New York's 27 congressional districts. All but 44 are chosen by primary results. These are considered "superdelegates;" state officials, governors, congressmen, and Democratic National Committee members unbound to a single candidate.
Sanders isn't dependent on superdelegates. The Vermont senator's once-fledgling campaign has never looked to politicians for support, instead depending grassroots outreach efforts based on vows to hold big banks accountable, raise the national minimum wage to $15-an-hour, and implement tuition-free college and university programs.
Tens of thousands of New Yorkers flocked to Sanders' rallies over the last week, one near the Brooklyn neighborhood where he was born and raised. To cut into Clinton's narrow lead, Sanders will need each one to cast ballots.
"Pundits told me that when we began this campaign there would be no change that we would go anywhere," Sanders said on NBC's TODAY show Monday morning. "We have a message that is resonating all over this country. We have enthusiasm, we have energy. People understand it's too late for establishment politics and economics. They want real change in this country."
An NBC/Wall Street Journal survey coinciding with the Empire State primary found Clinton maintains 50 percent support versus Sanders' 48 percent, down seven percentage points from her lead in the same poll a month ago.
The former secretary of state's leads among minorities and woman also shrank, which may have factored into her trek in the five boroughs. Clinton hopped on a Bronx-bound 4 train, and played dominoes in Harlem, like an incumbent mayor lobbying for her city's vote.
"I'm taking dominoes to the White House!" -- Hillary Clinton in East Harlem pic.twitter.com/pYwH6Tan1o
— Monica Alba (@albamonica) April 15, 2016
Donald Trump Looking for Knockout Blow
In all, 291 Democratic and 95 GOP delegates are on the line.
Of the Republican share, 81 are given out by congressional districts who divvy up delegated depending on a candidate's margin of victory; two are given for a slim victory, three for lopsided decisions.
Trump is about 500 delegates short of winning the automatic GOP nomination. Getting at least 50 percent of these districts to vote in his favor would go a long way in staving off Cruz's recent surge.
And if that doesn't work, Trump can insinuate the primary voting process is corrupt, as he did following losses in Colorado and Wyoming.
"The system is rigged. It's not meant for a guy like me who's not taken any money from special interest," Trump told a standing-room only crowd in Buffalo Monday night. "It's a rigged system, just like so much else in government is rigged. I've never seen anything like it."
Lyin' Ted Cruz can't win with the voters so he has to sell himself to the bosses-I am millions of VOTES ahead! Hillary would destroy him & K — Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) April 18, 2016
Trump, as he's wont to do this election season, is bringing about change in the delegation process by challenging the Republican National Committee. On Sunday, he implied Cruz is still in contention because Republican lawmakers are lobbying for him against the general public's wishes.
While RNC Rules Chairman Bruch Ash didn't completely agree with Trump, he cautioned against taking action "that can be interpreted as attempting to favor one candidate over another."
New Yorkers may not side with Cruz, the Texas senator whose "New York values" quip alienated undecided voters. They may not even support Ohio Gov. John Kasich, the third-string candidate still trailing Marco Rubio in the GOP delegate count.
Their goal is to reach the 20-percent threshold in each district; to get one delegate close to a contested Republican National Convention, even if they can't win the state outright.
Conversely, Trump could take advantage of the 50-percent threshold to make it a winner-take-all delegate scenario.
Nearly seven-in-10 registered voters in the NBC News/ Wall Street Journal survey couldn't see themselves supporting Trump, compared to 61 percent for Cruz and 47 percent for Kasich. If New Yorkers stick with Trump, it will leave conservatives a step closer to having no other choice.
New York Latinos Casting Ballots
More than 955,500 New York Latinos will vote in November's presidential election, according to projections released by the National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials.
Latino voter turnout grew by 12 percent between 2008 and 2012, and about 1.3 million can say they are registered, accounting for 11 percent of the state's population. Tuesday's primary will serve as a precursor to which way country's the fastest-growing demographic leans.
"As presidential candidates on both sides of the aisle attempt to shore up the number of delegates necessary to win their party's nomination, the race for the White House will continue to run through the Latino community," NALEO Education Fund Executive Director Arturo Vargas said in a press statement. "Candidates who choose to use the Latino community as a punching bag to score political points do so at their own peril."
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